Deportivo Toluca FC vs Tigres UANL Prediction & Picks - Liga MX

Prediction published on 12/14/25, 4:50 PM  by Erik Gibbs in Liga MX Picks

The highly anticipated second leg of the final will see Deportivo Toluca FC take on Tigres UANL at the Estadio Nemesio Diez on Sunday, in a clash that promises to be a thrilling conclusion to the Liga MX Apertura. This matchup pits the top two teams from the regular season against each other, though the advantage heading into the final leg rests squarely with the visitors, Tigres, who secured a narrow 1-0 victory in the first match.

Toluca, the regular season's best side with an impressive 11-4-2 record, boasted the league's most prolific attack, netting 43 goals over the 17-game campaign, demonstrating an exceptional offensive firepower that averaged over 2.5 goals per match. Their recent form, prior to the first leg defeat, was strong, including a dramatic 3-2 victory over Monterrey in the semi-finals to overturn a first-leg deficit, highlighting their ability to perform under pressure and score crucial goals.

Conversely, Tigres UANL has maintained a formidable consistency throughout the Apertura, finishing a single point behind Toluca with a 10-6-1 record. Their strength lies in a solid defense that conceded only 16 goals in the regular season, the second-best mark in the league, giving them a crucial defensive edge in these high-stakes final matches.

While their attack is slightly less explosive than Toluca's, netting 35 goals, it's highly efficient, and their path to the final included navigating two tight 1-1 draws against Cruz Azul in the semi-finals, advancing on aggregate after their quarter-final thrashing of Tijuana (8-0 aggregate). This shows a team that knows how to grind out results when it matters, which is invaluable in a final.