2025 Vuelta a Espana Picks & Predictions
Format and Preview of the 2025 Vuelta - Tour of Spain
Are you a cycling enthusiast? Do you enjoy betting on major races? Then you probably know that the Vuelta is one of the three grand tours of professional cycling and that this Tour of Spain ranks alongside the Tour de France and the Giro d'Italia.
Primoz Roglic, four-time winner of the Vuelta, including the last edition, will not be defending his red jersey in the 2025 Tour of Spain, having chosen to focus on the Tour of Italy and the Tour de France. The race, which starts in Turin and ends in Madrid, begins on August 23 and ends on September 14. In total, the riders will cover 3,151 kilometers over 21 stages.
So, who are the favorites? What are the key factors in predicting the stage winners? Find out everything you need to know on our page dedicated entirely to predictions for the Tour of Spain.
2025 Vuelta Winner: Our Prediction
With defending champion Roglic and 2025 Tour de France winner Pogacar absent, Vingegaard is logically one of the favorites to win this year's Vuelta. Behind Pogacar, the Visma rider was a cut above all other competitors in the recently concluded Tour de France. Not present at the Vuelta last year but second in 2023 with two stage wins to his name, Jonas Vingegaard has a great opportunity to go for first place this year.
The UAE team will be his main threat, with the talented Juan Ayuso and João Almeida lying in wait. But as we know, the Dane has plenty of power in his legs and should not be underestimated in this 2025 Tour of Spain. The two-time champion can also count on solid support to accompany him in the mountains (Matteo Jorgenson, Sepp Kuss, etc.). Our 2025 Vuelta prediction: victory for Vingegaard!
2025 Vuelta Outrights
- Tadej Pogacar -380
- Jonas Vingegaard +440
- Remco Evenepoel +1600
- Florian Lipowitz +1900
- Joao Almeida +1900
- Juan Ayuso +2100
- Oscar Onley +3000
- Isaac Del Toro +3500
- Paul Seixas +5500
- Derek Gee +7000
- Primoz Roglic +8500
- Mattias Skjelmose +8500
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
2025 Vuelta: The Route
The 80th edition of the Spanish race begins with a flat stage in Turin and ends with a similar stage in Madrid. In between, riders will face four medium mountain stages, eight mountain stages, and seven stages designed to give sprinters a chance to shine.
As is often the case in the Vuelta, the high mountain stages will make the difference in the race for the red jersey. This year, with the many mountain stages planned, the climbers will be able to enjoy themselves, and the gaps in the general classification are likely to be quite significant. The race starts gently with a mix of flat stages and the first few kilometers in the mountains.
Things get serious in the second week with a series of high mountain stages. These are likely to be grueling for the peloton, which will not be holding back. The most difficult and decisive stages are concentrated in the last week, with several summit finishes. The individual time trial could also play a role in the fight for the overall victory and/or the podium. The 2025 Vuelta gives sprinters a chance in the final stage in Madrid, at the Plaza de Cibeles. It's a great program in itself, which is sure to keep you entertained until early September!
- Stage 1 (Saturday, August 23, 2025): Flat. Turin to Novara (183 km)
- Stage 2 (Sunday, August 24, 2025): Medium mountains. Alba to Limone Piemonte (157 km)
- Stage 3 (Monday, August 25, 2025): Hilly. San Maurizio Canavese to Ceres (139 km)
- Stage 4 (Tuesday, August 26, 2025): Hilly. Susa to Voiron (192 km)
- Stage 5 (Wednesday, August 27, 2025): Team time trial. Figueres to Figueres (20 km)
- Stage 6 (Thursday, August 28, 2025): Mountain stage. Olot to Pal, Andorra (171 km)
- Stage 7 (Friday, August 29, 2025): Mountain stage. Andorra la Vella to Cerler, Huesca la Magia (187 km)
- Stage 8 (Saturday, August 30, 2025): Flat. Monzón Templario to Zaragoza (158 km)
- Stage 9 (Sunday, August 31, 2025): Mountain stage. Alfaro to Valdezcaray (195 km)
- Rest Day (Monday, September 1, 2025)
- Stage 10 (Tuesday, September 2, 2025): Mountain stage. Sendaviva to El Ferial, Larra-Belagua (168 km)
- Stage 11 (Wednesday, September 3, 2025): Medium mountains. Bilbao to Bilbao (167 km)
- Stage 12 (Thursday, September 4, 2025): Medium mountains. Laredo to Los Corrales de Buelna (143 km)
- Stage 13 (Friday, September 5, 2025): Mountain stage. Cabezón de la Sal to L’Angliru (202 km)
- Stage 14 (Saturday, September 6, 2025): Mountain stage. Avilés to Alto de la Farrapona (135 km)
- Stage 15 (Sunday, September 7, 2025): Hilly. A Veiga to Monforte de Lemos (167 km)
- Rest Day (Monday, September 8, 2025)
- Stage 16 (Tuesday, September 9, 2025): Medium mountains. Poio to Mos, Castro de Herville (172 km)
- Stage 17 (Wednesday, September 10, 2025): Mountain stage. O Barco de Valdeorras to Ponferrada (143 km)
- Stage 18 (Thursday, September 11, 2025): Individual time trial. Valladolid to Valladolid (26 km)
- Stage 19 (Friday, September 12, 2025): Flat. Rueda to Guijuelo (159 km)
- Stage 20 (Saturday, September 13, 2025): Mountain stage. Robledo de Chavela to Puerto de Navacerrada (159 km)
- Stage 21 (Sunday, September 14, 2025): Flat. Alalpardo to Madrid (101 km)
Beginner cycling bettors: how does La Vuelta work?
The Tour of Spain has firmly established itself in the cycling calendar between August and September. Alongside the Tour de France and the Giro d'Italia, it is considered one of the most important stage races in the world.
The race is designed to give all riders a chance, combining all types of stages: hilly, mountain, medium mountain, flat, and time trials. The Vuelta therefore, offers a balanced and exciting schedule.
Despite this, its position in the year, very close to the end of the season, means that many participating teams only confirm their riders a few days before the race, depending on the condition in which they finished the Tour de France.
Vuelta classification: how is it calculated?
The rider who takes the least time to complete the Vuelta is declared the winner of the race. However, there is one point to note. In order to encourage the leaders in the general classification to remain competitive in their quest for stage victories, the Tour awards 10 seconds, 6 seconds, and 4 seconds to the top three finishers in each stage. In addition, 3 seconds, 2 seconds, and 1 second are awarded to the riders who finish first in each of the 10 intermediate sprints.
Since 2010, the jersey, pants, and helmet of the rider leading the general classification have been red. The blue polka dot jersey belongs to the leader of the mountain classification, the green jersey belongs to the leader of the points classification, and the white jersey belongs to the best young rider.
How can you make reliable predictions for the Vuelta?
We outline four key points below, which we will then expand on, and which can help you make predictions for the Vuelta. According to our cycling experts, these are the four most important aspects to evaluate each stage day:
- Take into account the stage profile
- Monitor current form
- Know the objectives of each rider and each team in the Vuelta
- Know the weather conditions
Of course, following these guidelines does not guarantee success, but it greatly increases the chances of predicting the stage winner each day.
Take into account the profile of the stage
The type of stage (flat, time trial, mountain, etc.) influences the favorites. If the stages are flat, the favorites will be the sprinters or the brave riders who try to win a stage in an individual or collective breakaway. Time trials are reserved for specialists in the discipline. And during mountain stages, the strongest riders in the Vuelta are usually present at the finish, as these are the days when the gaps are greater and have a greater impact on the overall classification.
Monitor current form
Next, it is important to stay informed each day about what happened during the previous stage. A rider who has had a bad day and lost a lot of time may show signs of weakness or physical problems. On the other hand, a rider who has held his own among the best on a difficult stage may have the strength to fight for the stage 24 hours later.
Knowing the objectives of each rider and each team in the Vuelta
Is the rider you are considering betting on aiming for the overall victory, or would they be satisfied with a place on the podium? Does this cyclist have a teammate who is higher in the overall standings? Many variables change daily.
A rider may be considered the leader of his team, but along the way, a teammate may have a better chance in the overall standings, which can change the leader to a teammate. Or if the stages pass and a team has no contender for the top spots, it will likely aim for stage wins. Thus, the team will be less conservative than if it were considering a long-term strategy.
Knowing the weather conditions
A rainy day can increase the risk of crashes and cause riders to be more cautious, which increases the chances of a bunch finish. On the other hand, some cyclists cope better than others with extreme heat. With very high temperatures during mountain stages, the gaps at the finish line are likely to be greater.
Mistakes to avoid when making your predictions for the Vuelta
To increase the success of your predictions for the 2025 Tour of Spain, there are a few mistakes you should avoid when placing your bets. According to our cycling experts, here are the mistakes to avoid when making your predictions for the Vuelta:
- Not taking the stage profile into account in your analysis
- Betting only on well-known riders
- Not comparing odds between sports betting sites
- Not paying attention to the overall Vuelta standings
- Playing odds below +100 on risky stages
- Not taking into account the composition of the teams
By keeping these pitfalls in mind, as well as the advice provided above, you are ready to maximize your results when betting on the 2025 Tour of Spain. A real plus that can make all the difference!
In short: how to make accurate predictions for the Vuleta?
To sum up, it is essential to understand the specific characteristics of each stage in detail before making a prediction on a stage of the Vuelta. Predicting the winner of a stage can be a challenge for many bettors, which is why our cycling experts offer their predictions every day throughout the competition.
With this in mind, don't hesitate to take advantage of the expertise of our cycling specialists on our website for free. They will help you bet wisely or give you ideas for predictions. Good luck with your bets on the 2025 Vuelta!
Our current Vuleta picks
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