Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Lou Aguila in MLB Picks
The Pittsburgh Pirates, who have won 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Cincinnati Reds, will go for another convincing win over their NL Central rivals in Game 1 of their weekend series.
The Pirates are +105 to cover -1.5 runs.
Current Form:
The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds, looking to extend their winning streak to three games. The Pirates won the last two games of their series against the Seattle Mariners behind back-to-back pitching dominance from Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler. Pittsburgh has pitched to a 2.45 ERA over its last five games.
The Cincinnati Reds lost all three games against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds only scored one run in the first two games before coming up with five runs in a 5-6 defeat in Game 3. Over the last five games, Cincinnati has averaged 3.9 runs on a .219 BA.
Starting Pitchers:
Reds LHP Andrew Abbott (5-4, 3.83 ERA) has sported a 3.54 ERA over the last five games. The lefty gave up one run over five innings in a 3-5 loss to Arizona on June 14 and again surrendered one run over the same number
of innings in a 2-10 win over the Yankees on June 20.
Pirates RHP Paul Skenes (6-7, 2.86 ERA) has not delivered a win for his team in his last 7 starts. However, the reigning NL CY Young Winner has maintained a terrific 2.57 ERA over these starts.
The Matchup: The Pirates have won their last five meetings against the Reds and 7 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16
|
0.494 | 83 | 41 | 42 |
|
20
|
0.481 | 81 | 39 | 42 |
Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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Pittsburgh Pirates against Cincinnati Reds : Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
May 3, 2026 - MLB
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Pittsburgh Pirates - Cincinnati Reds Key Points
- Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
- Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games against Pittsburgh.
- Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
- Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the National League Central Division
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Our Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
The Pirates take Game 1 as Paul Skenes continues his domination of the Reds.
Pittsburgh has systematically owned the Reds in their recent meetings. Over their last 10 head-to-head matches, the Pirates have averaged 6.00 runs and hounded the Reds to 3.7 runs per contest.
Moreover, Paul Skenes has an opportunity to end his winning drought as he faces a team he tormented in recent faceoffs. Skenes has allowed only one run over 17 innings across his last three starts against Cincinnati.
Cincinnati hopes its projected starter for Game 1, Andrew Abbott, can somehow contain the Pirates’ offense that is averaging 5.1 runs per game this season. In his last start vs. the Pirates, Abbott gave up four earned runs over 5.2 innings in a 3-8 loss on April 1, 2026.
Expect Skenes to dominate the Reds again while getting enough run support to clinch his first win in 8 mound appearances.
Our betting prediction for the Cincinnati Reds vs the Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates -1.5 Runs
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