Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Lou Aguila | in MLB Picks
Buoyed by stellar pitching from the starters and bullpen, the Philadelphia Phillies have won by at least two runs in their last four games.
Philadelphia enters Game 1 of their series against the Cincinnati Reds, carrying a tempting +150 price to cover -1.5 runs.
Momentum: The Philadelphia Phillies caught fire recently, winning their last four games – including a three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates. This latest streak has pushed the Phillies above .500 at 24-23 and put the club back in contention in the NL East, where the Atlanta Braves (32-15) remain firmly on top of the division standings.
The Cincinnati Reds moved one loss away from dropping to .500 at 24-23 after losing the final two games of their series against the Cleveland Guardians. Cincinnati is 4-12 in its last 16 games.
The Matchup: The Reds and Phillies split their last 10 meetings at 5-5, though Cincinnati routed Philadelphia (6-1 and 8-0) in the last two games of last year’s series.
Reds left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo (0-1, 8.68 ERA) will go head-to-head with Phillies right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter (1-4, 6.21 ERA).
Lodolo has surrendered 9 earned runs over his last 9.1 innings across two starts. Painter gave up one earned run over 5.0 innings in a 1-3 loss to Boston on May 13.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
0.529 | 119 | 63 | 56 |
|
21
|
0.479 | 117 | 56 | 61 |
Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
May 17, 2026 - MLB
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
May 10, 2026 - MLB
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
May 17, 2026 - MLB
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May 15, 2026 - MLB
May 14, 2026 - MLB
May 13, 2026 - MLB
May 12, 2026 - MLB
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
May 17, 2026 - MLB
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May 13, 2026 - MLB
May 12, 2026 - MLB
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 14, 2026 - MLB
May 13, 2026 - MLB
May 12, 2026 - MLB
May 10, 2026 - MLB
May 9, 2026 - MLB
May 8, 2026 - MLB
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
May 17, 2026 - MLB
May 16, 2026 - MLB
May 15, 2026 - MLB
May 7, 2026 - MLB
May 6, 2026 - MLB
May 5, 2026 - MLB
Philadelphia Phillies against Cincinnati Reds : Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
Aug 13, 2025 - MLB
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Philadelphia Phillies - Cincinnati Reds Key Points
- Cincinnati is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games.
- Cincinnati is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia.
- Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
- Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
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Our Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Philadelphia improves to 13-12 at home by putting the clamps on the Cincinnati Reds.
Best Pick: Take a chance on the Phillies to cover -1.5 runs (+150). Philadelphia might be 7-17 ATS at home, but they have won by at least two runs in their last four games, including a couple of 6-0 shutouts against the Pirates. Philadelphia clearly has the momentum to extend its winning streak even against this prolific Cincinnati squad that troubled them in the past.
Despite failing to lead Philadelphia to a win in his last five starts, Painter has an opportunity to help the Phillies get off to a strong start, especially if he can contain Cincinnati’s offense through the first five innings. Philadelphia’s bullpen has delivered over the last five games with a rock-solid 2.25 ERA.
Our betting prediction for the Cincinnati Reds vs. the Philadelphia Phillies: the Phillies -1.5 Runs
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