Chivas vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction & Picks - Liga MX
Mexico - Liga MX
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by Edgar Jibran | in Liga MX Picks
The World Cup break is finally over, and this weekend some leagues like the Mexican one will ultimately bring renewed passions and dreams for the fans. In this regard, two of the most competitive teams like Guadalajara and Toluca, will clash this Saturday night on the first matchday of the season, a game that can be considered the main event of Liga MX this weekend.
Despite the excitement, it should be noted that both teams are expected to have some rotations in their starting XI, as the players who took part in the national team during the World Cup will have longer vacations to physically recover. With these factors in mind, Chivas will be forced to build its offensive structure based on Efraín Álvarez and Ángel Sepúlveda, who were the players that allowed this team to reach the semifinals during the last season.
Meanwhile, Toluca is also expected to provide some rest to Jesús Gallardo, but unfortunately Paulinho will most likely be absent in this game due to a muscular injury. Considering this, Toluca is expected to prioritize an effective counterattack strategy for this away game, and it will be intriguing to see how Víctor Guzmán and Erick Gutiérrez adapt to Antonio Mohamed’s tactical approach.
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Chivas vs Deportivo Toluca FC Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
14 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +6 |
|
3
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +8 |
Chivas and Deportivo Toluca FC Latest Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
May 16, 2026 - Liga MX
May 13, 2026 - Liga MX
May 9, 2026 - Liga MX
May 2, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 25, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 22, 2026 - Liga MX
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
May 16, 2026 - Liga MX
May 9, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 25, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 18, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 5, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 18, 2026 - Liga MX
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
May 13, 2026 - Liga MX
May 2, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 22, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 11, 2026 - Liga MX
Mar 29, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
Mar 21, 2026 - Liga MX
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
May 30, 2026 - Concachampions
May 10, 2026 - Liga MX
May 6, 2026 - Concachampions
May 3, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 29, 2026 - Concachampions
Apr 25, 2026 - Liga MX
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
May 30, 2026 - Concachampions
May 6, 2026 - Concachampions
May 3, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 25, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 12, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 8, 2026 - Concachampions
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
May 10, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 29, 2026 - Concachampions
Apr 22, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 18, 2026 - Liga MX
Apr 15, 2026 - Concachampions
Apr 4, 2026 - Liga MX
Chivas against Deportivo Toluca FC : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Feb 28, 2026 - Liga MX
Sep 20, 2025 - Liga MX
Feb 15, 2025 - Liga MX
Jul 6, 2024 - Liga MX
May 11, 2024 - Liga MX
May 8, 2024 - Liga MX
Chivas against Deportivo Toluca FC Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
O. Whalley
DefenderJ. Castillo
L. Rey
M. Gomez Ortiz
M. Tapias
B. Gutierrez
A. Gonzalez
J. Carrillo
J. Perez
R. Marin
H. Gonzalez Duran
DefenderB. Mendez
B. Garcia
D. Zaragoza
A. Briseno
Luan
MidfielderF. Arce
V. Guzman
Helinho
C. Carrillo
Missing players
M. Ruiz
Most goals and assists
Chivas
Deportivo Toluca FC
R. Alvarado
(4 Goals)
,
R. Marin
(4 Goals)
Helinho
(2 Goals)
, 
F. Vinas
(2 Goals)
R. Marin
(2 Assists)
Helinho
(2 Assists)
Chivas - Deportivo Toluca FC Key Points
- Guadalajara will also lose Santiago Sandoval and Hugo Camberos for this game, as they were called up to play for the U20 CONCACAF Championship.
- Toluca has a four-game losing streak, during which they only scored more than 1 goal in their 4-3 loss against Mazatlán.
- Guadalajara made the Akron Stadium a fortress during the Clausura 2026 season, and it is worth noting that they only lost the semifinal game against Cruz Azul (2-1).
- Toluca didn’t concede more than 1 goal during their last three road meetings against Guadalajara.
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Our Chivas vs Deportivo Toluca FC Prediction
As can be seen, these teams will start the season with many rotations due to various circumstances, so delivering a slow-paced rhythm is the main expectation around them. Furthermore, facing the Leagues Cup in some weeks will also generate a forced stoppage in the league, so most of these games aren’t expected to be spectacular.
In conclusion, even though the bookies made Guadalajara the favorite for this game, the large number of absences is expected to impact Gabriel Milito’s roster. Therefore, the pick for CD Guadalajara – Deportivo Toluca FC is: Under 2.5 Goals!
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
