Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Lou Aguila | in MLB Picks
The Pittsburgh Pirates appear poised to pull off an upset with Carmen Mlodzinski looking to sustain his dominance against the Chicago Cubs on Monday.
The Chicago Cubs suffered their 8th consecutive loss after falling to the Houston Astros 5-8 in the series finale on Sunday. The Cubs found themselves on the receiving end of a sweep at the hands of the Astros and Brewers while losing two out of three games against the White Sox. As a result, the Cubs dropped to third in the NL Central with a 29-24 record, 2.5 games behind the new division leaders, the 30-20 Brewers.
The Pittsburgh Pirates prevented a sweep as they gutted out a 4-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays in the series finale. The Pirates have won three of their last five games, bumping their record above .500 at 27-26.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Chicago Cubs as the favorites (-125) for the series opener, heavily influenced by a 7-3 record over the Pirates in their last 10 meetings.
Meanwhile, the Pirates command a +105 on the moneyline and -170 to cover +1.5 runs.
The Sportsbooks set the over/under at 8.0 runs, even though two strong starters are scheduled to go head-to-head on Monday.
Fresh off a shutout stint against the Cardinals, Pirates’ RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (4-3, 3.96 ERA) will duke it out against Cubs’ RHP Ben Brown (1-2, 2.09 ERA).
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
0.542 | 83 | 45 | 38 |
|
16
|
0.494 | 83 | 41 | 42 |
Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 24, 2026 - MLB
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 24, 2026 - MLB
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0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
May 24, 2026 - MLB
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0/6 (0%)
6/6 (100%)
May 24, 2026 - MLB
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
May 17, 2026 - MLB
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Pittsburgh Pirates against Chicago Cubs : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Apr 12, 2026 - MLB
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Pittsburgh Pirates - Chicago Cubs Key Points
- Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games.
- Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
- Chicago Cubs is 0-8 SU in its last 8 games.
- Chicago Cubs is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road.
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Our Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Fearless Forecast: The Pirates take the opener 4-1
Aside from its tempting +105 price, Pittsburgh appears to be in a strong position to win this series opener because of Carmen Mlodzinski’s pitching dominance against the Cubs.
Mlodzinski has surrendered only two earned runs over 13.1 innings across three starts against the Cubs. He also blanked the Cubs in his last two starts, including an April 10 stint where he pitched for 5.1 scoreless innings to power the Pirates to a 2-0 win.
Ben Brown is also a terrific starter with a 2.09 ERA this season, but with the way the Cubs are performing on both sides of the ball, he must deliver a near-flawless performance or else his team has no chance of winning this ballgame.
Over the last five games, the Cubs’ starters have registered a 6.31 ERA over the last five games. Offense has also gone south as they average 1.8 runs on a .153 during this five-game stretch.
Our betting prediction for the Chicago Cubs vs the Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates will win.
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