Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks - MLB

Prediction published on 7/12/26, 10:14 AM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 7/13/26 at 3:58 AM in MLB Picks

After splitting the first two games, the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs are heading into a winner-takes-all rubber match in Game 3.

The Reds and Cubs have averaged 7.6 combined runs per game over their last 3 meetings. Caesars Sportsbook raised the total for this game to 9.5 runs, making the under an intriguing option in this particular matchup.

Current Form:

After taking the series opener, 4-0, the Cincinnati Reds dropped Game 2, 3-5, after allowing Alex Bregman to hit a two-run homer in the 7th inning. The Reds are 2-3 in their last five games, averaging 4.0 runs per game and pitching to a 3.00 ERA.

Meanwhile, the Cubs snapped their two-game skid following their Game 2 win. Chicago, second in the NL Central with a 53-42 record, is averaging 4.2 runs and posting a 3.98 ERA over its last five games.

Starting Pitchers:

Reds LHP Andrew Abbot (5-5, 3.92 ERA) has posted a 3.42 ERA over his last five mound appearances. In his last start against the Phillies on July 6, Abbott gave up three earned runs over six innings in a 1-4 loss.

Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd (4-1, 4.31 ERA) has sported a 3.51 ERA over his last five starts with Chicago going 4-1 in those outings.

The Matchup: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games against Chicago Cubs.