Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Prediction & Picks - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Monte Carlo Masters Picks
Kicking off his title defense in Monte Carlo, Carlos Alcaraz is an enticing pick to cover -6.5 games against Sebastian Baez, against whom he has conceded only three service games across three matches.
Momentum: Carlos Alcaraz hits the clay for the first time this season after a fruitless campaign during the Sunshine Double. Alcaraz, the reigning French Open champion and world’s No.1, will be defending a lot of points during this clay-court season, starting with the 1000 points he earned from winning the Monte Carlo Masters last year. Facing Alcaraz is Argentine clay-court expert Sebastian Baez. who bested Stan Wawrinka in a competitive straight-set victory, 7-5, 7-5.
Matchup: Alcaraz has won the first three meetings with Baez. He hasn’t dropped a set against the Argentine, who ranks 65th in the world. The last time these two players met was at the 2025 Tokyo Open, where Alcaraz cruised to a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Hot on the Board: Alcaraz catches a -6.5-game handicap against Baez, who is a +1000 if he pulls off an upset in this match. The over/under is set at 17.5 games at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Mar 22, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 14, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 11, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 9, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 6, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 3, 2026 - ATP BCR Open Romania
Mar 31, 2026 - ATP BCR Open Romania
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 9, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Carlos Alcaraz against Sebastian Baez : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
Sep 25, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Carlos Alcaraz - Sebastian Baez Key Points
- Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set against Sebastian Baez
- Carlos Alcaraz owns an 82 percent win rate on clay.
- Sebastian Baez is 0-14 vs. top-10 players.
- Sebastian Baez has only broken Carlos Alcaraz only three times across three matches.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Carlos Alcaraz cruises to a 6-2, 6-2 win
Best Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 Games
Carlos Alcaraz has never dropped a set against Sebastian Baez in their head-to-head series. In fact, the Spaniard has conceded only three service games across three matches against the Argentine. And while this is the first time they will be playing each other on clay, Baez will soon find out that Alcaraz is a much harder foe on this surface, where the Spaniard boasts an 82 percent win rate and has collected a handful of trophies, including two French Open titles.
Our betting prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 Games
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
