ATP - ATP Italian Open
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by Lou Aguila in ATP Italian Open Picks
Carlos Alcaraz of Spain will tussle with Lorenzo Musetti of Italy in an explosive semifinal showdown on Friday at the 2025 Italian Open.
Musetti has established himself among the early favorites at the 2025 Roland Garros after making his third straight semifinal appearance at an ATP 1000 clay-court tournament with a 7-6(1) 6-4 win over Alexander Zverev of Germany. Musetti had previously reached the semifinal in Madrid and the final in Monte Carlo, where he lost to his semifinal opponent on Thursday, Carlos Alcaraz.
Alcaraz is also in his third clay-court tournament semifinal, defeating Jack Draper of Great Britain 6-4 6-4. The Spaniard avenged his loss to the Brit at the Indian Wells Open by scoring the big points in the pivotal moments of the match. Alcaraz captured 30 points off his first serves and converted all 4 breakpoint chances to outlast the vastly improving Draper.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
May 14, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
May 13, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
May 11, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
May 9, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 20, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 19, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
May 14, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
May 13, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
May 11, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
May 9, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
May 2, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
May 1, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Carlos Alcaraz against Lorenzo Musetti : Head to Head (H2H)
80 %
20 %
Apr 13, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 26, 2024 - ATP Miami
Oct 1, 2023 - ATP Beijing Open
Jun 4, 2023 - ATP French Open
Jul 24, 2022 - ATP Hamburg Open
Carlos Alcaraz - Lorenzo Musetti Key Points
- Lorenzo Musetti defeated Alexander Zverev 7-6(1) 6-4 in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Rome Masters
- Lorenzo Musetti is 14-2 on clay in 2025
- Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jack Draper 6-4, 6-4 in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Rome Masters.
- Carlos Alcaraz is 13-1 on clay in 2025.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Lorenzo Musetti stuns Carlos Alcaraz before home crowd in Rome
Reasons to Bet on Lorenzo Musetti: Carlos Alcaraz is coming in as the consensus favorite given his place on the ATP Rankings (world’s No.2) and the fact that he has already defeated Musetti in their most recent encounter at the final of the 2025 Monte Carlo Masters more than a month ago. However, Musetti has played splendid tennis consistently throughout the clay-court season, and it seems he has taken his level of play to another tier when he dispatched the Munich Open champion and world’s No.3 Alexander Zverev in straight sets. Alcaraz is 5-1 head-to-head against Musetti, but his only loss to the Italian came on clay-court, particularly in the final of the 2025 Hamburg Open, where Musetti outlasted the Spaniard 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-4.
Reasons NOT to bet on Carlos Alcaraz: Alcaraz has held 80% of his serves in this tourney. Musetti has posted a higher service hold percentage at 93%. Alcaraz boasts a 52% breakpoint conversion percentage, but again, Musetti topped it with a 57% breakpoint conversion rate. Alcaraz has only beaten one top-10 player (Draper) on his way to final. On the other hand, Musetti obliterated former world’s No.1 Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-4 and No.3 seed Zverev in straight sets.
Our betting prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Lorenzo Musetti will win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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