Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Prediction & Picks - ATP Qatar Open
ATP - ATP Qatar Open
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
With Carlos Alcaraz struggling to convert breakpoints at a high rate, Karen Khachanov might have a chance to at least narrow the losing margin in Thursday’s quarterfinal match at the 2026 Qatar Open.
Recommended Pick: Karen Khachanov +4.5 Games (Alternative Game Spread)
Potential Payout: Bet $100, Win $250 (+150 on DraftKings)
Current Form:
Carlos Alcaraz improved to 9-0 this season after another pedestrian win over Valentin Royer of France. Alcaraz, the world’s No.1 and reigning Australian Open champion, held 10 service games while breaking Royer’s serves three times off the back of 30 receiver points.
The No.17-ranked Karen Khachanov has posted back-to-back three-set wins over Shintaro Mochizuki and Marton Fucsovics to reach the quarterfinals of the ATP 500 Qatar Open. The Russian has collected most of his points with his thunderous serves, averaging 12 aces per match and winning 77% of his first balls. Khachanov has only dropped 11 service games across 8 matches in 2026.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Karen Khachanov Latest Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Feb 18, 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
Feb 17, 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
Feb 1, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 29, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 27, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 24, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Feb 18, 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
Feb 17, 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
Feb 12, 2026 - ATP Rotterdam
Feb 11, 2026 - ATP Rotterdam
Jan 23, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 21, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Carlos Alcaraz against Karen Khachanov : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
May 13, 2025 - ATP Italian Open
Sep 30, 2024 - ATP Beijing Open
May 3, 2023 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Carlos Alcaraz - Karen Khachanov Key Points
- Karen Khachanov has conceded only 11 service games in 2026.
- Karen Khachanov is 0-10 vs. any No.1 player in the world.
- Carlos Alcaraz has yet to lose a service game at the 2026 Qatar Open.
- Carlos Alcaraz is 5-0 vs. Karen Khachanov.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Carlos Alcaraz takes down Karen Khachanov 6-4, 7-6
Alcaraz is winning matches despite not playing at his usual level. In his first two wins over Rinderknech and Royer, Alcaraz managed to hold all his serves, but he could not find much success as a receiver, securing only four breakpoint conversions in two matches in Doha. Nevertheless, there isn’t anything to worry about the Spaniard in his upcoming match with Khachanov, whom he defeated in all five meetings and conceded one service game.
From a purely betting perspective, it would be ideal to bet on Khachanov to cover the spread at +4.5 Games. Alcaraz might have been unbreakable in this tournament, but he’s only converting 33 percent of breakpoint chances in Doha. This opens an opportunity for the big-serving Khachanov to secure most of his service games and keep the final score as close as possible.
Our betting prediction for Karen Khachanov vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Karen Khachanov +4.5 Games
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
