Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Prediction & Picks - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
ATP - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Monte Carlo Masters Picks
Alexander Bublik gets his first crack at Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Monte Carlos Masters. Bublik has emerged as a compelling pick to cover +1.5 sets (+210) following his impressive win over Miami Open finalist Jiri Lehecka.
Momentum: Carlos Alcaraz had to dig deep against Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 to earn his spot in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters. Alcaraz, 18-2 on the season, is set to play Alexander Bublik, who took down Miami Open finalist Jiri Lehecka 6-2, 7-5.
Matchup: It’s the first time Bublik will play the current world’s No.1 on the ATP Tour. Bublik owns a 1-4 record against No.1 players and a 55 percent win rate on clay. Alcaraz has now upped his clay-court win rate to 82 percent following his wins over a couple of Argentines in this tournament.
Hot on the Board: Bublik is a massive +860 underdog, but he presents a tantalizing value in the set market, where he offers a +210 value on the +1.5 sets handicap.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Apr 9, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 7, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 22, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 14, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 9, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 7, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 9, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 25, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
Carlos Alcaraz - Alexander Bublik Key Points
- Carlos Alcaraz owns an 82 percent win rate on clay.
- Carlos Alcaraz has only dropped one service game at the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters
- Alexander Bublik has also dropped one service game at the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters
- Alexander Bublik downs Miami Open finalist, Jiri Lehecka, in straight sets
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Carlos Alcaraz grinds out a 6-4, 5-7, 6-3 win over Alexander Bublik
Best Pick: Alexander Bublik +1.5 Set
If Alexander Bublik can repeat the kind of performance he produced in his win over Jiri Lehecka, he will be in good shape to steal at least a set from Alcaraz.
has only faced one breakpoint in two games at Monte Carlo, never allowing Monfils and Lehecka to threaten him while he’s on serve. Similar to Bublik, Alcaraz only faced one breakpoint in this tournament, though he has converted 62 percent of his BP chances. Again, Alcaraz remains the clear-cut favorite in this match because of his mastery and dominance on this surface. However, Bublik’s fearless attitude and vastly evolving clay-court game make him a tricky opponent for the super-elite player.
Our betting prediction for Alexander Bublik vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Alexander Bublik +1.5 Sets
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
