Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks - MLB

Prediction published on 5/4/26, 2:24 PM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 5/5/26 at 3:59 AM in MLB Picks

The Detroit Tigers are 11-4 against the spread at home this season. With Tarik Skubal set to hit the mound again, the Tigers find themselves in a solid position to clear -1.5 runs against the Red Sox, who average 1.9 runs against left-handed pitchers over the last five games.

Current Form:

The Boston Red Sox have gone 1-4 in their last 5 games, including a 3-1 extra-inning loss to the Houston Astros on May 3. The Red Sox, 13-21 in the season, are struggling mightily at the plate recently, averaging 1.6 runs per game on a .242 batting average. There hasn’t been a significant improvement in their pitching numbers as the Red Sox have posted a 4.30 ERA during this five-game stretch.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have won 3 of their last 4 games. Their decisive back-to-back wins over the Texas Rangers underscored their capability to dominate their opponents with their pitching. Commanding an already solid 3.81 ERA in the season, the Tigers have lowered it to 2.66 after giving up 13 earned runs over their last five games. Detroit also averages 5.0 runs per game on a .257 BA in this span.

Starting Pitchers: Red Sox RHP Payton Tolle (0-1, 3.38 ERA) vs. Tigers RHP Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.70 ERA)

Tolle hasn’t delivered a win for the Red Sox after five starts this season. In his last start, Tolle surrendered three earned runs over 4.2 innings in a 0-3 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays.

After conceding 4 runs against the Brewers, Skubal allowed two earned runs in a 3-4 loss to the Braves on April 29. Skubal has powered the Tigers to a win in his last three starts against the Red Sox. This includes his terrific stint on April 18, where he gave up one earned run and struck out 10 batters over six innings in a 4-1 win over Boston.