Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Prediction & Picks - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Carlos Zabala in Champions League Picks
Real Madrid and Benfica clash in the Round of 32 after their epic encounter on February 28th in the same competition, which Benfica won 4-2 in Portugal. They narrowly secured their place as the last team to qualify, while simultaneously denying Real Madrid the chance to reach the Round of 16 via a top-eight finish.
That Benfica-Real Madrid match will be remembered as one of the classics of the competition, in which goalkeeper Trubin became the fifth player in history to score a Champions League goal. That match also resulted in Asensio and Rodrygo being sent off, meaning they will miss the first leg, which will be played again at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon.
Another special element of this match is that it takes place in a Benfica side currently managed by Mourinho, former Real Madrid coach, while Los Blancos will be led by a player Mourinho once coached, Álvaro Arbeloa, who took the reins at Real Madrid after Xabi Alonso's turbulent tenure.
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Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Form
Benfica Lisbon and Real Madrid Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 13, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 8, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 1, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 25, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 21, 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 8, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 25, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 7, 2026 - Portugal League Cup
Jan 3, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Dec 22, 2025 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 13, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 1, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 21, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 14, 2026 - Taca de Portugal
Dec 28, 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 8, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 1, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 24, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 20, 2026 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 1, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 20, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 17, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 4, 2026 - LaLiga
Dec 20, 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 8, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 24, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 14, 2026 - Copa del Rey
Jan 11, 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
Jan 8, 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
Benfica Lisbon against Real Madrid : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Despite Real Madrid's inconsistency this season, it's clear that betting against the most successful club in Champions League history is, at the very least, a risky move. February, for Arbeloa's men, has been a month of absolute resurgence. After a January in which they were even eliminated from the Copa del Rey by the modest Albacete, in the second month of the year, Real Madrid defeated Rayo Vallecano and Valencia and finally played one of their best matches of the year, thrashing Real Sociedad 4-1 with goals from García, two from Vinícius, and one from Valverde.
Madrid has been shaky this season but are counting on UCL success.
But the Portuguese Eagles are also in top form; they are currently third in the Portuguese league, having won three of their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent victory was a hard-fought league win against Santa Clara.
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Benfica Lisbon against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
D. Ferreira
DefenderA. Silva
S. Lopes Cabral
A. Bah
MidfielderE. Barrenechea
G. Sudakov
R. Rios
M. Silva
F. Ivanovic
ForwardA. Cabral
D. Lukebakio
Bruma
A. Lunin
DefenderF. Garcia
J. Martinez
F. Mendy
D. Alaba
D. Carvajal
T. Pitarch Pinar
J. Cestero
D. Ceballos
ForwardG. Garcia
F. Mastantuono
B. Diaz
Missing players
E. Militao
R. Asencio
ForwardRodrygo
Benfica Lisbon & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Real Madrid's aura of invincibility in Europe has been tarnished, especially when playing away from home. Benfica, therefore, must capitalize on these slip-ups, and one player who could do so again is Andreas Schjelderup, who scored two goals against Madrid last month. But it's clear that Madrid has its own man on fire in attack: Kylian Mbappé, who has scored two or more goals in five of his last seven Champions League matches.
Mourinho is dealing with unfortunate absences ahead of Tuesday's match; he will be without Samuel Soares due to a muscle problem, as well as Fredrik Aursnes.
On the Madrid side, Bellingham will miss the first leg due to a hamstring injury. Camavinga, Tchouameni, and Valverde would then form Real Madrid's midfield.
Most goals and assists
Benfica Lisbon
Real Madrid
V. Pavlidis
(2 Goals)
, 
L. Barreiro
(2 Goals)
, 
A. Schjelderup
(2 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(15 Goals)
G. Sudakov
(2 Assists)
,
V. Pavlidis
(2 Assists)
Vinicius Junior
(6 Assists)
Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid Key Points
- In their last 14 matches, Real Madrid have scored two or more goals in each
- Real Madrid achieved an xG of 3.11 in their match against Real Sociedad
- Benfica had 11 shots and 7 corner kicks in their last league victory
- Four of Benfica's last five matches have seen more than 3.5 goals
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Our Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Prediction
This is a high-stakes match that promises to be as spectacular as the one a month ago. Both teams have been very clinical in front of goal. Real Madrid have scored 21 goals in 8 league matches, but among the top 13 teams, only Barcelona have conceded more than Real Madrid's 12.
Mbappé has been particularly effective on Champions League nights, but Benfica's attack, whose star striker is the ever-effective Greek Vangelis Pavlidis, also promises to cause problems for Madrid, even if they create little danger in attack.
Our prediction for Benfica vs Real Madrid is: Over 3.5 goals.
Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Picks
Penalty Awarded? Yes
Half with most goals: second
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