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by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks
The Baltimore Orioles are set to face the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field today in the final game of a four-game set. With Cleveland having already secured three straight wins in the series, the Guardians will be aiming for the sweep, while the Orioles are desperate to stop their slide and avoid a complete shutout on the road.
These two clubs met for a three-game series back in April, with Baltimore taking two of those contests. However, over their last 11 matchups, the Guardians have the upper hand, holding a slight 6-5 edge thanks to their win yesterday.
The Orioles have struggled mightily as of late, dropping two out of three to both the Rays and Marlins in their previous series before arriving in Cleveland. With seven losses in their last eight games, Baltimore has plummeted to the bottom of the AL East standings, and confidence is clearly shaken in the clubhouse.
Cleveland, on the other hand, has been trending in the opposite direction. After solid series wins over the Athletics and White Sox, they’ve now claimed 11 victories in their last 13 outings. That red-hot form has vaulted them to second place in the AL Central, and they’re making a serious push to overtake the division-leading Tigers. A win today would cap off a dominant homestand and put even more pressure on Detroit as the playoff race intensifies.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Form
Table
Teams | % | P | W | L |
---|---|---|---|---|
18
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0.5 | 102 | 51 | 51 |
24
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0.437 | 103 | 45 | 58 |
Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians Latest Matches

1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jul 23, 2025 - MLB
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jul 23, 2025 - MLB
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Jul 21, 2025 - MLB
Jul 20, 2025 - MLB
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Jul 18, 2025 - MLB
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jul 13, 2025 - MLB
Jul 12, 2025 - MLB
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Jul 8, 2025 - MLB
Baltimore Orioles against Cleveland Guardians : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Jul 23, 2025 - MLB
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Baltimore Orioles - Cleveland Guardians Key Points
- The Orioles are 0-10 in their last 10 road games vs. AL Central teams
- The Guardians are 9-0 in their last 9 day games vs. AL teams with a losing record
- The Guardians are 6-1 covering the run line in their last 7 day games vs. teams with a losing record
- The Orioles are 1-8 covering the run line in their last 9 day games vs. AL Central teams
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Our Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
On the mound, the Orioles will send veteran Charlie Morton to try to stop the bleeding. Morton, despite the team’s overall struggles, has been relatively steady, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. His experience could be key in helping Baltimore regain some stability.
Meanwhile, the Guardians counter with left-hander Logan Allen. Although not overwhelming, Allen has been consistent, giving up three earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts. That kind of reliability has been enough for a Cleveland team that continues to get timely hits and solid bullpen support.
Cleveland’s home record sits just above .500 at 25-24, but given the Orioles’ poor road form (22-32), the Guardians have a clear edge heading into this matchup. With their current momentum and clutch performances in key moments, Cleveland appears poised to complete the sweep and continue their pursuit of first place in the division. Our prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles: Guardians to win.
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