Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Lou Aguila | in MLB Picks
The Boston Red Sox will kick off a new series with the Baltimore Orioles as the favorite.
The Red Sox currently trade at -140 moneyline on Caesars Sportsbook, while the Orioles sit at +118 as road underdogs.
Boston is coming into this matchup with a 6-1 record in their last 7 meeting with Baltimore.
Solid pitching has allowed the Red Sox to enjoy this head-to-head dominance over their AL East rivals.
But in the last three meetings, Boston’s offense also exploded.
Powered by a 17-1 rout on April 25, the Red Sox have averaged 8.33 runs per game and stifled the Orioles to 4.6 runs per game over their last three faceoffs.
Boston will start Connelly Early (5-2, 2.95 ERA) in Game 1. Early dazzled in his last start against the Atlanta Braves on May 27. The lefty pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out seven batters to lead Boston to an 8-0 win.
Baltimore will counter with Shane Baz (2-5, 4.48 ERA). After allowing 13 earned runs in his first three starts in May, Baz surrendered a total of two runs in his last two mound appearances.
Boston remains a solid pick to win this game. But with two solid pitchers scheduled to start on Tuesday, backing the Red Sox to win by two runs may not be a good idea.
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Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
0.542 | 118 | 64 | 54 |
|
21
|
0.479 | 119 | 57 | 62 |
Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 31, 2026 - MLB
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1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
May 31, 2026 - MLB
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1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
May 20, 2026 - MLB
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Boston Red Sox against Baltimore Orioles : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
Apr 26, 2026 - MLB
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Boston Red Sox - Baltimore Orioles Key Points
- Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games against Boston.
- Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
- Boston is 6-1 in its last 7 meetings with Baltimore
- Connelly Early allowed 2 runs over 6.2 innings in his last start against Baltimore on April 26
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Our Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Boston will re-assert their dominance over Baltimore to win Game 1.
Early should tame down Baltimore’s offense, who are hitting .221 with 4.0 runs per game against lefties this season. The last time he pitched against Baltimore, Early gave up two runs over 6.2 innings to lead Boston to a 5-3 win on April 26.
Baz can keep Boston’s offense in check in the first half of the match, but the problem reappears once he exits the field. Baltimore’s bullpen has posted a 6.59 ERA over the last five games and 4.71 in the season.
It will be a competitive, defense-oriented ballgame, but Boston should be able to sneak out a close win down the stretch.
Our betting prediction for the Baltimore Orioles vs. the Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox will win.
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