Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Picks - LaLiga

Spain - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
9/27/25 10:15
Real Madrid

Prediction:

 

Arda Guler to Score or Assist

+190
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 by Bradley Gibbs in LaLiga Picks

On Saturday, during the late morning for US viewers, one of the biggest games of the Spanish season takes place in the city of Madrid. It's time for the Madrid Derby. In front of a home crowd at Metropolitano Stadium, Atletico will go up against fierce rivals Real. When the pair met at Atletico's ground last season, it was a 1-1 tie, before that scoreline was repeated at the inconic Santiago Bernabeu. In fact, each of the last three LaLiga renewals of this fixture have finished 1-1, while the scoreline was also 1-1 (after regulation time) when the pair met in the UEFA Champions League back in March. Will both those in attendance and those watching around the globe witness another hard-fought, tight game between two giants of the Spanish game? We'll soon find out.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Form

Table

Teams Pts P W D L GD
1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
18 6 6 0 0 11
8
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
9 6 2 3 1 2

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Latest Matches

Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid Latest matches
D D W L D W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Sep 24, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
3 :  2
Rayo Vallecano

Sep 21, 2025 - LaLiga

Mallorca
1 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Sep 17, 2025 - Champions League

Liverpool
3 :  2
Atletico Madrid

Sep 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
2 :  0
Villarreal

Aug 30, 2025 - LaLiga

Alavés
1 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Aug 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
1 :  1
Elche
W W W D W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
2.5 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Sep 24, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
3 :  2
Rayo Vallecano

Sep 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
2 :  0
Villarreal

Aug 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
1 :  1
Elche

Jun 23, 2025 - Club World Cup

Atletico Madrid
1 :  0
Botafogo

May 18, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
4 :  1
Betis

May 10, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
4 :  0
Real Sociedad
L W L D L D
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.17 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Sep 21, 2025 - LaLiga

Mallorca
1 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Sep 17, 2025 - Champions League

Liverpool
3 :  2
Atletico Madrid

Aug 30, 2025 - LaLiga

Alavés
1 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Aug 17, 2025 - LaLiga

Espanyol
2 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Aug 9, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Newcastle
0 :  2
Atletico Madrid

Aug 3, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Porto
1 :  0
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Real Madrid Latest matches
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.5 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Sep 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Levante
1 :  4
Real Madrid

Sep 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Espanyol

Sep 16, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Marseille

Sep 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
1 :  2
Real Madrid

Aug 30, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Mallorca

Aug 24, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Oviedo
0 :  3
Real Madrid
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Sep 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Espanyol

Sep 16, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Marseille

Aug 30, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Mallorca

Aug 19, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Osasuna

Jul 5, 2025 - Club World Cup

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Borussia Dortmund

Jul 1, 2025 - Club World Cup

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Juventus
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
2.67 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
100% Over 2.5
0% Under 2.5

Sep 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Levante
1 :  4
Real Madrid

Sep 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Sociedad
1 :  2
Real Madrid

Aug 24, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Oviedo
0 :  3
Real Madrid

Aug 12, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Wattens
0 :  4
Real Madrid

Jul 9, 2025 - Club World Cup

PSG
4 :  0
Real Madrid

Jun 26, 2025 - Club World Cup

Salzburg
0 :  3
Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid : Head to Head (H2H)

Atletico Madrid

33 %

Draw

50 %

Real Madrid

17 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.67
Total goals
83%
BTTS
1.5
Goals scored (Team 1)
1.17
Goals scored (Team 2)
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Atletico Madrid
1 :  0
Real Madrid

Mar 4, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Feb 8, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Sep 29, 2024 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
1 :  1
Real Madrid

Feb 4, 2024 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Jan 18, 2024 - Copa del Rey

Atletico Madrid
4 :  2
Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid: Form Analysis

It's been a patchy start to the season for Diego Simeone's men, there can be no denying that. First time out, Atletico were upset by Espanyol, losing by two goals to one, a result that carved out the path to back-to-back ties against Elche and Alaves. On match-day four, Atletico got up and running with a win over Villarreal, but continental success did not follow, with Simeone's team losing away to Liverpool in the UCL, before tying with Mallorca in LaLiga. Thankfully, Saturday's hosts built some momentum ahead of this huge game by beating Rayo Vallecano during the week, but again, they were far from convincing in doing so. 

For the visitors, it's been a much more simplistic start to the campaign.

Under the astute management of Xabi Alonso, Los Blancos sit top of the LaLiga table having won six out of six, scoring 14 goals, conceding only three in the process. Last time out, they made light work of beating Levante and should thus go to Metropolitano Stadium feeling confident. 

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid last Lineups

Atletico Madrid

Formation : 4 - 4 - 2

13
J. Oblak
16
N. Molina
24
R. Le Normand
17
D. Hancko
21
J. Galan
14
M. Llorente
6
Koke
8
B. Pablo
4
C. Gallagher
7
A. Griezmann
19
J. Alvarez
10
K. Mbappe
7
Vinicius Junior
15
A. Guler
30
F. Mastantuono
19
D. Ceballos
8
F. Valverde
20
F. Garcia
18
A. Carreras
24
D. Huijsen
17
R. Asencio
1
T. Courtois

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Real Madrid

Missing players

Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Defender

J. Gimenez

Midfielder

T. Almada

J. Cardoso

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Defender

F. Mendy

A. Rudiger

T. Alexander-Arnold

Atletico Madrid & Real Madrid Squad Analysis

Thiago Almada will not feature for the hosts thanks to a muscle issue. Jose Maria Gimenez also continues on the sidelines, while there are also fitness doubts surrounding summer signing Johnny Cardoso, who has missed the last few games nursing an ankle injury. Having featured as a substitute during the week, forward Giacomo Raspadori could return to the starting XI, meaning that club legend Antoine Griezmann could be set for a supporting role off the bench. 

Alexander-Arnold isn't available for this matchup.

Visiting head coach Xabi Alonso will not be able to call on the services of summer signing Trent Alexander-Arnold, while the Spaniard will also be without veteran defender Antonio Rudiger. Due to a hamstring injury, midfielder Ferland Mendy is also out. Argentine 18-year-old Franco Mastantuono could continue in the starting XI following his goal last time out. 

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Atletico Madrid
CD Huachipato Real Madrid
Top Goalscorer
Argentina J. Alvarez (4 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
France K. Mbappe (9 Goals)
Best assists
Spain M. Llorente (2 Assists)
Best assists
Uruguay F. Valverde (3 Assists)
Brazil Vinicius Junior (3 Assists)

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Stats in LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
33%
Victories
100%
50%
Draw
0%
17%
Defeats
0%
2.67
Total goals per match
2.83
1.5
Goals scored per match
2.33
1.17
Goals conceded per match
0.5
33%
Over 2.5
67%
67%
Under 2.5
33%
83%
BTTS
50%
17%
No goals conceded
50%

Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid Key Points

  1. In six LaLiga appearances so far this season, Arda Guler has registered four goals and assists.
  2. Right now, Arda Guler is averaging 0.82 goals and assists per 90 minutes.
  3. Also in LaLiga this season, Arda Guler averages an impressive 0.86 goals and assists per 90 minutes.
  4. In his last three away games, Arda Guler has registered three goals and assists.

Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction

Let's be honest, Arda Guler looks well on his way to having a serious breakthrough season in the Spanish capital. Anyone who watched EURO 2024 saw that the youong Turkish midfielder has stacks of quality, but he's now starting to really deliver at the highest level. With Guler having caused teams lots of problems in recent weeks, you really could argue that he looks a little generously priced to score or assist against Atletico. After all, he's close to averaging a goal or an assist every game, and that's hard to ignore all the time odds of +190 are on offer. 

Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Pick: Arda Guler to Score or Assist. 

Prediction:

 

Arda Guler to Score or Assist

+190
$300 offered for betting!

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Picks

Real Madrid to Score Over 1.5 Goals

Odds +100

As a secondary play, it may just be worth betting on the visitors to score a couple of goals here. After all, we're talking about a team that has scored two or more goals in each of their last six games in all competitions, while we know that they'll be happy to play on the break at times, which could upset the hosts.

Moreover, this season, the Atleti boys haven't been so strong at the back, conceding multiple goals in two of their last three games, keeping only one clean sheet in seven competitive games.

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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match : Frequently asked questions

This game will take place at Metropolitano Stadium, located in the Spanish capital of Madrid.
The teams last met in the UEFA Champions League back in March 2025. They tied 1-1, before Real Madrid advanced thanks to a penalty shootout success.

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Picks