New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Travis Pulver | in MLB Picks
The New York Mets (45-62, 23-30 Home) will try to keep the momentum from Monday’s 14-3 win over the Braves going in the first game of today’s doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves (62-44, 30-24 Away). Fans can follow the action at City Field in Queens. NY, pm MLB.TV once the game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. EST.
Because of the doubleheader today, the Braves are bringing AJ Smith-Shawver up from Triple-A a game early. He was slated to get one more rehab start, but instead he’ll make his season debut today. Smith-Shawver has been on the IL since undergoing Tommy John Surgery in June 2025. In five rehab appearances, he posted a 1.53 ERA over 17 2.3 innings of work.
Before going down with an injury in 2025, he posted a 3-2 record in nine starts with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.
As for the Mets, they’ll be going with Sean Manaea to start the day. Manaea has gone 2-5 this season in 22 appearances, including 8 starts, with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has appeared in 11 home games, starting four, posting a 1-1 record with a 4.36 ERA and a .268 OBA.
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New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
0.597 | 119 | 71 | 48 |
|
25
|
0.442 | 120 | 53 | 67 |
New York Mets and Atlanta Braves Latest Matches
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New York Mets against Atlanta Braves : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
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New York Mets - Atlanta Braves Key Points
- Atlanta is 27-16 on the road after a loss on the road this season; the Mets are 20-24 at home after a win.
- Atlanta is 23-20 ATS (run line) after a loss on the road; the Mets are 22-22 ATS (run line) after a win at home.
- The OVER is 20-21-2 for the Braves after a road loss and 22-17-5 for the Mets after a win at home.
- Betting Public: 73% of total tickets and 75% of the handle are on the OVER.
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Our New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
After blowing up for 19 hits and 14 runs Monday, the Mets are hitting .254 over the last week. Despite their six-hit, 3-run outing, the Braves are hitting slightly better at .257. While the Mets lineup could get to Smith-Shawver, he’ll probably have a short leash. The Atlanta bullpen has a 3.46 ERA, third best in baseball. After a slow day on Monday, they’ll face a more hittable pitcher in Manaea today. Consequently, this game could go either way, making the run line a non-starter, and I’d rather not guess and bet the moneyline. That leaves the total. I don’t see either team blowing up, but the final will likely be 5-4 or something like that.
Our Atlanta vs. New York Pick: OVER 8.5
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
