Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction & Picks - Champions League

Europe - Champions League

Arsenal
4/15/26 15:00
Sporting Lisbon

Prediction:

 

Arsenal -1.5.

+118
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 by Carlos Zabala | in Champions League Picks

The Gunners' season has once again imploded when it matters most; even the Premier League title no longer seems so secure, but in the Champions League in Portugal, they at least salvaged a reassuring result at the end, beating Sporting CP 1-0 in the first leg. The tie returns to London; it's obvious that the fans won't be happy about another upset at the Emirates Stadium. However, the Gunners have not lost their home advantage and, with odds of -212, they are also the heavy favorites to win the return leg.

Sporting Lisbon are the two-time defending Portuguese champions and are aiming once again to snatch the league lead from Porto. The trio of Suárez, Trincao, and Goncalves played in their last league match, a victory against Estrela. They are expected to be available for the return leg in London just four days later. But that's also the same amount of rest Arsenal had after their unexpected defeat against Bournemouth.

Although some predict that Arsenal will inevitably implode once again in the final stages of the season and continue to do so next Wednesday in the Champions League, it's also possible that such an outcome won't happen. A significant historical fact is that Portuguese clubs have failed to advance beyond the Champions League quarterfinals in all of their last nine attempts.

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Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Form

Arsenal and Sporting Lisbon Latest Matches

Arsenal
Arsenal Latest matches
W W L L W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.17 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Apr 11, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  2
Bournemouth

Apr 7, 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

Apr 4, 2026 - FA Cup

Southampton
2 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 22, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Arsenal
0 :  2
Manchester City

Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Bayer Leverkusen

Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Everton
W W W W L L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 11, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  2
Bournemouth

Mar 22, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Arsenal
0 :  2
Manchester City

Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Bayer Leverkusen

Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Everton

Mar 1, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Chelsea

Feb 15, 2026 - FA Cup

Arsenal
4 :  0
Wigan
W W W D L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 7, 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

Apr 4, 2026 - FA Cup

Southampton
2 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

Bayer Leverkusen
1 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 7, 2026 - FA Cup

Mansfield Town
1 :  2
Arsenal

Mar 4, 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
0 :  1
Arsenal

Feb 22, 2026 - Premier League

Tottenham
1 :  4
Arsenal
Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon Latest matches
L W W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Apr 11, 2026 - Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora
0 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Apr 7, 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

Apr 3, 2026 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
4 :  2
Santa Clara

Mar 22, 2026 - Liga Portugal

FC Alverca SAD
1 :  4
Sporting Lisbon

Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
5 :  0
Bodoe/Glimt

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

Bodoe/Glimt
3 :  0
Sporting Lisbon
W W W W W L
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
17% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
0.5 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 7, 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

Apr 3, 2026 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
4 :  2
Santa Clara

Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
5 :  0
Bodoe/Glimt

Mar 3, 2026 - Taca de Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  0
Porto

Feb 27, 2026 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
3 :  0
Estoril

Feb 15, 2026 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  0
Famalicao
D W D L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Apr 11, 2026 - Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora
0 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Mar 22, 2026 - Liga Portugal

FC Alverca SAD
1 :  4
Sporting Lisbon

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

Bodoe/Glimt
3 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

Mar 7, 2026 - Liga Portugal

SC Braga
2 :  2
Sporting Lisbon

Feb 21, 2026 - Liga Portugal

Moreirense
0 :  3
Sporting Lisbon

Feb 9, 2026 - Liga Portugal

Porto
1 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Arsenal against Sporting Lisbon : Head to Head (H2H)

Arsenal

50 %

Draw

50 %

Sporting Lisbon

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.33
Total goals
50%
BTTS
1.67
Goals scored
0.67
Goals conceded
33.33%
Over 2.5
66.67%
Under 2.5

Apr 7, 2026 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

Nov 26, 2024 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  5
Arsenal

Mar 16, 2023 - Europa League

Arsenal
1 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Mar 9, 2023 - Europa League

Sporting Lisbon
2 :  2
Arsenal

Nov 8, 2018 - Europa League

Arsenal
0 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

Oct 25, 2018 - Europa League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  1
Arsenal

Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon: Form Analysis

A brilliant combination between Gabriel Martinelli and Kai Havertz was the formula that led to Arsenal's goal in Lisbon. Statistics show that in the first leg, Arsenal controlled the game, but were far from dominating, yet the 1-0 scoreline was a fair result.

Arsenal made very few passing errors, a hallmark of Arteta's style of play, which the team maintained even during this dreadful end-of-season slump. However, that's not the only factor giving the Gunners confidence; They have won 17 out of 18 European knockout ties in which they initially took the lead, and they haven't lost a European match at the Emirates since their last visit in the 2023/2024 season.

History is not on the Lions' side.

Unlike Arsenal, Sporting Lisbon has never overturned a European tie after losing by a single goal in the first leg. Similarly, their time in England has almost always been unsuccessful against Premier League opponents, failing to win on 10 previous occasions.

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Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Picks

Arsenal against Sporting Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11

Arsenal

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
D. Raya
3
C. Mosquera
2
W. Saliba
6
G. Magalhaes
5
P. Hincapie
36
M. Zubimendi
41
D. Rice
20
N. Madueke
10
E. Eze
11
G. Martinelli
14
V. Gyokeres
97
L. Suarez
8
P. Goncalves
17
F. Trincao
10
G. Catamo
5
H. Morita
42
M. Hjulmand
20
M. Araujo
25
G. Inacio
26
O. Diomande
72
Quaresma
1
R. Silva

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Sporting Lisbon

Substitutes

Arsenal
Arsenal
Goalkeeper

T. Setford

K. Arrizabalaga

Defender

M. Salmon

B. White

Midfielder

H. Dudziak

M. Lewis-Skelly

M. Dowman

C. Norgaard

Forward

L. Trossard

G. Jesus

K. Havertz

Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon
Goalkeeper

J. Virginia

Defender

G. Vagiannidis

Quaresma 85'

Z. Debast

R. Mangas

Midfielder

J. Simoes

H. Morita 77'

S. Blopa

D. Braganca

P. Goncalves 71'

G. Kochorashvili

Forward

S. Faye

R. Nel

F. Trincao 85'

G. Quenda

G. Catamo 71'

F. Goncalves

Missing players

Arsenal
Arsenal
Defender

J. Timber

R. Calafiori

Midfielder

M. Odegaard

M. Merino

Forward

B. Saka

Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon
Midfielder

Luis Guilherme

Forward

N. Santos

F. Ioannidis

Arsenal & Sporting Lisbon Squad Analysis

Among the bad news Arsenal has received this month, some encouraging news has emerged, such as Merino being the only confirmed absentee for the London team. This is an improvement, as the team had as many as seven players in the treatment room at the start of the month. Odegaard, Calafiori, Saka, and Timber are still carrying knocks, but for a match of this magnitude, it wouldn't be surprising if Arteta pushes them back; none have been ruled out.

Arteta, once again, must think and act wisely. Which men will start the attack? He has several options to choose from. It doesn't seem logical to bench Eze when he's in top form; in that spirit, Trossard could partner him, and Havertz and Martinelli could come off the bench this time.

As for Sporting, they will also field one of the best versions of their starting eleven; their lineup includes the Colombian Suárez, with 33 goals, whose suspension for the second leg due to yellow card accumulation has been denied.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Arsenal
CD Huachipato Sporting Lisbon
Top Goalscorer
Brazil G. Martinelli (6 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Colombia L. Suarez (5 Goals)
Best assists
Belgium L. Trossard (5 Assists)
Best assists
Portugal F. Trincao (3 Assists)

Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon Key Points

  1. Arsenal achieved a perfect Champions League group stage
  2. Arsenal kept seven clean sheets
  3. Arsenal controlled 56% possession against Sporting CP in the first leg
  4. Sporting CP had 13 corner kicks in their last league match
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Our Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction

All of Arsenal's achievements this season will be meaningless if they don't solidify their position and win a title. Given their recent struggles domestically, the pressure is twofold, but they faced a similar situation in the 2024/2025 Champions League quarterfinals and ultimately eliminated the mighty Real Madrid.

The Portuguese clubs have encountered an insurmountable obstacle in this round, and all indications suggest it will remain so. Perhaps Arsenal will then be able to generate more attacking play than they did in the first leg.

Our prediction for Arsenal vs Sporting CP is: Arsenal -1.5.

Prediction:

 

Arsenal -1.5.

+118
$1000 offered for betting!

Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon - Other Interesting Picks

Arsenal to win

Odds -220
A more conservative bet might be that Arsenal will win in 90 minutes; it's a do-or-die match for the Gunners, but their starting eleven is quite fit, and Sporting is a step below Arsenal.
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Viktor Gyokeres to score or assist.

Odds -105
Football tends to be poetic, and the famous "former player's curse" could come into play on Wednesday when former Sporting player, now a Gunner, Viktor Gyökeres, is highly likely to score.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.