ATP - ATP Cincinnati Open
New customers only | Commercial content | 21+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Lou Aguila in ATP Cincinnati Open Picks
Andrey Rublev, who opened as a +310 moneyline underdog, might have something special in store for Carlos Alcaraz in Friday’s quarterfinal match at the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
Rublev reached his 15th career ATP 1000 quarterfinals on Thursday following a sweeping win over Francisco Comesana of Argentina 6-2 6-3. Rublev showed incredible form despite surviving a dogfight with Alexei Popyrin of Australia 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-5 in his last match. The Russian captured 81 percent of his first serves and fired eight aces to concede only one service break. But it was on the return where Rublev dealt the most damage in the match. Rublev broke Comesana five times on just 15 return points.
After a rusty opening match against Damir Dzumhur, Alcaraz has now posted two dominant wins, the latest of which was against Luca Nardi of Italy 6-1 6-4 on Thursday. Alcaraz won 85 percent of his first serves and captured four breakpoints to dismantle Nardi. The win catapulted Alcaraz to another quarterfinal appearance, where he will take on another fierce rival in Andrey Rublev for the fifth time in their career.
Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Form
Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 13, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 12, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 10, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 5, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Aug 3, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Aug 1, 2025 - ATP Toronto
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Aug 13, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 12, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 10, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Jul 13, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Jul 11, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Jul 8, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Andrey Rublev against Carlos Alcaraz : Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
75 %
Jul 6, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Nov 13, 2024 - ATP Finals
May 1, 2024 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Nov 15, 2023 - ATP Finals
Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Key Points
- Carlos Alcaraz defeated Luca Nardi 6-1, 6-4 in the fourth round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
- Carlos Alcaraz is 3-1 vs. Andrey Rublev head-to-head.
- Andrey Rublev defeated Francisco Comesana 6-2, 6-3 in the fourth round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
- Andrey Rublev is 13-8 on the hard court in 2025.
Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
Our Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Andrey Rublev beats spread against Carlos Alcaraz.
While Rublev (0-3 vs. ATP top-5 in 2025) might have remote chances of beating Carlos Alcaraz, the Russian could give the Spaniard his hardest battle in this tournament. Rubev has some traction going ahead of his match with Alcaraz. He has won 6 of his last 7 matches on the hard court and reached a semifinal and quarterfinal in 2 of his last 3 tournaments since the start of the North American hard-court season.
Alcaraz will be playing only his fourth hard-court match following his clay and grass courts campaigns. He has been spectacular in his last two wins, but not one of his last three opponents was anywhere near the caliber of an Andrey Rublev. Moreover, Rublev has always given Alcaraz a hard time, even in the three losses in their head-to-head series. In their last confrontation at the Wimbledon Open in July, Alcaraz lost the first set to Rublev before finding his second wind to complete a reverse sweep, 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 6-4.
Alcaraz might still be too potent for Rublev, but I guarantee the Russian will play the world’s No.2 better than the Spaniard has ever faced in this event.
Our betting prediction for Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Andrey Rublev +3.5 Games
Jackpot Pools
DraftKings's long-running promo Jackpot Pools gives bettors a chance to win a whopping $10,000 which grows with every entry!
To win, you'll need to answer all 15 questions correctly and the pool is yours! If there are multiple winners, the pool will be split. If no one wins, however, the jackpot rolls over to the next pool, increasing the winnings. You can enter up to 10 times each pool to give yourself an even greater chance of winning. Once the event has completed, you can collect your winnings within 24 hours so keep an eye on the pool! Don't miss out on your chance to win big and make your picks today!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
