WTA 1000 Indian Wells: Tournament Preview and Outright Picks
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Tournament history
Plenty of the finest tennis players on the planet will be involved this week, but who comes out on top? One player who will be keen to dominate is defending champion Mirra Andreeva, who is back in a bid to become the first women to win this event in consecutive years since Martina Navratilova did back in 1991.
Outside of the Grand Slams, this event has become one of the top tournaments on the WTA calendar, and in recent years, some of the biggest and best have come out on top.
Below you’ll find the recent winners and finalists of the BNP Paribas Open:
2021 - Paula Badosa defeated Victoria Azarenka
2022 - Iga Swiatek defeated Maria Sakkari
2023 - Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka
2024 - Iga Swiatek defeated Maria Sakkari
2025 - Mirra Andreeva defeated Aryna Sabalenka
The above list shows all winners and finalists of this tournament since it became a WTA 1000 event back in 2021.
As we can see, in recent years, the big-name players have done very well in Indian Wells, with the current top three (Sabalenka, Swiatek and Rybakina) all either winning the tournament or reaching the final at least once since 2022.
What to expect in Indian Wells
The BNP Paribas Open is an outdoor hard-court tournament, and it’s a unique one. Why is it unique? Well, for starters the courts at Indian Wells Tennis Garden are slow, there’s no doubting that. Over the last few years, many players, both male and female, have commented on how the Indian Wells courts make the ball bounce more than many clay courts. This is unusual, meaning that the players involved are presented with a rather very interesting hard-court challenge unlike any other.
The combination of slowness and high bounce make the Indian Wells courts ideal for players who move well and enjoy longer rallies. In contrast, those who rely on power and big winning shots typically feel less at home. Grinding it out will be the order of the day.
From our top sportsbooks, here’s the quick rundown of the pre-tournament betting:
- Aryna Sabalenka +275
- Elena Rybakina +500
- Iga Swiatek +600
- Jessica Pegula +1000
- Coco Gauff +1200
- Karolina Muchova +1600
- Amanda Anisimova +1600
- Mirra Andreeva +1800
- Elina Svitolina +2500
- Victoria Mboko +2500
- All other players +4000 or bigger.
Svitolina to go one better than in Dubai
Both Rybakina and Sabalenka have thrived at this tournament in recent years, and after that pair made the Australian Open Final in January, I would’ve expected both to be eying up success in Indian Wells. However, a few weeks ago, Rybakina retired in Dubai and hasn’t been since, while Sabalenka has had injury issues too, not playing since her defeat in Melbourne, which opens things up a little.
Iga Swiatek is another of the big-name players to approach this tournament off the back of less-than-ideal preparation. The multiple Grand Slam winner and two-time BNP Paribas Open champion hasn’t played since being knocked out of the WTA event in Doha by Maria Sakkari back in early February. Sakkari also hasn’t played since that tournament, but she reached the semi-finals and certainly isn’t short of positive form in Indian Wells, so don’t be surprised if she goes deep this week.
With some of the very best players not quite being at their peak right now, Sakkari is well worthy of support at big odds, though my primary selection for this tournament is going to be Elina Svitolina, who has been in outstanding form in 2026, and who continues to go under the radar. Frankly, odds of +2500 look very generous given how hot she's been in the last couple of months.
The Ukrainian competitor really has taken her game to the next level during the early part of the season, and with several of the big dogs floundering ahead of this event, she’s the player to focus on as far as I’m concerned.
Svitolina is not without form at the BNP Paribas Open either. She’s previously reached the semis, while she made the quarter-final last year, losing to the eventual winner, which is noteworthy form, especially as she’s now a more well-rounded competitor, who comes off the back of a recent final appearance in Dubai.
Our WTA 1000 Indian Wells Pick: Elina Svitolina to Win the Tournament
