Nitto ATP Finals: Who will come out on top in Turin?
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Eight of the best to battle it out
For those who aren’t too sure what this tournament is all about, the ATP Finals is one of the most prestigious non-Grand Slam events. It is the season finale, offering only the best in the business the chance to get their hands on the all-important end-of-year title. Oh, and there’s also the not-so-small matter of playing for $5,000,000, which is on offer to the winner.
In addition to the eye-watering prize money on offer, the winner of the ATP Finals will receive a huge number of ATP Ranking points, ensuring that they begin the next season in a very healthy position.
The top eight in the rankings qualify for this tournament, but on this occasion, Lorenzo Musetti, who is currently the world number nine will be involved as a result of Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal.
The eight players involved, ordered according to their ranking, are as follows:
Jannik Sinner
Carlos Alcaraz
Alexander Zverev
Taylor Fritz
Ben Shelton
Alex De Minaur
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Finals history
Given numerous names over the years, the ATP Finals first began in 1970 as the Masters Grand Prix, before becoming the ATP Tour World Championships in 1990. In 1999, the name changed again, with the event rebranding as the Tennis Masters Cup, before becoming the ATP World Tour Finals in 2009. The most recent change occurred in 2017, when the season finale became known as the ATP Finals. We now refer to this event as the Nitto ATP Finals for sponsorship reasons.
Let’s look at who has won this top prize since its last rebrand in 2017:
2024 - Sinner defeated Fritz to become champion
2023 - Novak Djokovic defeated Jannik Sinner to become champion
2022 - Novak Djokovic defeated Casper Ruud to become champion
2021 - Alexander Zverev defeated Daniil Medvedev to become champion
2020 - Daniil Medvedev defeated Dominic Thiem to become champion
2019 - Stefanos Tsitsipas defeated Dominic Thiem to become champion
2018 - Alexander Zverev defeated Novak Djokovic to become champion
2017 - Grigor Dimitrov defeated David Goffin to become champion
Perhaps unsurprisingly given its prestige, this event has been one by some of the greatest players to ever grace the court, including Stan Smith, Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, Bjorn Borg, Ivan Lendl, Boris Becker, Pete Sampras, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Having won this tournament on no fewer than seven occasions, securing his first success in 2008 and his last in 2023, Novak Djokovic is the most successful ATP Finals player in history.
Sinner not to be stopped says the betting market
Right now, Jannik Sinner is the world number one, and the general consensus for the last year or so has been that a fit and healthy Jannik Sinner is impossible to stop, and we only need to take a quick glance at the betting market to conclude that the Italian is going to be tough to halt on home soil this week.
Not only is Sinner the world number one and an unbelievably strong competitor, but he’s also Italian and is from the northern part of the country which is where this tournament is being held. In other words, he has plenty stacked in his favor this week.
Ahead of this event, here’s how the futures betting looks from our top sportsbooks:
Jannik Sinner -140
Carlos Alcaraz +125
Taylor Fritz +2000
Alexander Zverev +2000
Alex De Minaur +2200
Lorenzo Musetti +2500
Ben Shelton +2500
Felix Auger Aliassime +2500
Clearly, Sinner is hugely fancied by the early market, and it is very hard to disagree with that, with the Italian rating as the best male player on the planet. He’s also the most in-form player too.
Would it be a sin to fade Sinner?
Let’s be real, considering all of the positives, and given that we’re talking about a Sinner who arrives in Turin off the back of 13 straight wins, picking up three titles during that time, anything other than a win for the Italian would be a surprise.
The only serious question that we need to ask ourselves here is whether a bet on Jannik Sinner represents value or not. Quite frankly, I’m of the opinion that the Italian could easily be shorter in the betting. Would anyone really blink if he entered this competition closer to -200. I really don’t think that I would.
Sure, I know that for many, such a short-odds futures bet must always be avoided, and I get it, but we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking that short-priced bets cannot represent value, because they absolutely can, as long as they should be shorter than they are. Sinner should be shorter than he is, it's that simple.
The Italian has so much in his favor ahead of this event, it’s almost laughable. Clearly in red-hot form, it’s not as if Sinner hasn’t beaten the best in recent weeks either, seeing off the likes of Auger-Aliassime, Zverev, Shelton, De Minaur and Alcaraz in straight sets since the middle of October. Frankly, I can’t ignore this. I'll say it one final time, he should be an even stronger favorite, which is why I’m betting on the Italian to once again go all the way in Turin.
Our ATP Finals Pick: Jannik Sinner to win the title.
