Key Matchups in NFL Wild Card Round
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
This weekend’s wild card matchups have plenty of promise. Young stars are making their postseason debuts, while veterans are looking to take advantage of a playoff run without Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Spread across the weekend, the Wild Card Round is perfect for football fans in the depth of winter. Settle in and enjoy winner-or-go-home action from across the country.
Here are the matchups that will decide the six games:
Rams Pass Rush vs. Panthers Offensive Line
Carolina’s pass blocking ranked eighth best in the regular season. The Rams were in the top 10 in hurry rate and fourth in pressure rate.
Historic underdogs at home, the Panthers obviously need another strong defensive performance. Even if their defense delivers against Matthew Stafford, Carolina needs to find a way for Bryce Young to move the ball down the field.
That means time in the pocket and avoiding drive-ruining sacks.
Caleb Williams vs. Playoff Pressure
Green Bay should be clear underdogs for this game with Micah Parsons and several other defensive players sidelined. Sportsbooks are seemingly not confident in Caleb Williams as a playoff performer, despite Chicago ranking ninth in EPA per pass play.
An inventive, diverse rushing attack was the foundation of the Bears’ offense, but Williams also took a major step forward.
The question, though, is how that translates to the playoffs. This is a new environment for the young quarterback, a test of his mettle when the lights are brightest.
James Cook vs. Jaguars Front Seven
Jacksonville allowed the fewest rushing yards in the regular season. James Cook led the NFL in ground yards. The Jaguars were outside the top 10 in EPA against the rush, however, and were middle of the pack in missed tackles.
Notably, the Jaguars weren’t great when it came to getting stops on third down. Cook is a key component for Buffalo in third and short situations.
The Bills need a big game from Cook to avoid the offense becoming predictable. If he can keep the Jags’ defense honest, life becomes much easier for Josh Allen.
Eagles Rushing Attack vs. Niners Linebackers
San Francisco’s linebacker corps has been heavily impacted by injuries throughout the season. This game comes too soon for Fred Warner. Dee Winters is questionable. As is Luke Gifford. Tatum Bethune is on injured reserve.
It looks like the Niners will be vulnerable in space. Saquon Barkley is obviously a massive threat, but the same goes for Jalen Hurts, who has often provided game-altering plays with his legs in the postseason.
With the inconsistency of Philly’s passing attack, they need their ground game to be strong.
Hunter Henry vs. Derwin James
The Chargers rarely blitzed in the regular season. They leaned towards putting extra players in pass coverage. It’s a risk against Drake Maye, who can make game-winning plays when given time in the pocket.
Los Angeles projects to line Derwin James up with Hunter Henry. A release valve for Maye, Henry was a key component in New England’s offense, which lacks the kind of elite receiver most Super Bowl contenders possess.
James needs to limit Henry’s receptions to ensure the Patriots offense doesn’t run away with this game.
Texans Offensive Line vs. Steelers Defensive Line
Pittsburgh was third in PFF’s defensive line rankings. T.J. Watt returned for the final week of the regular season and was one of five Steelers to register a quarterback hit.
After revamping their offensive line, the Texans ranked as one of the best pass protecting groups in the NFL. C.J. Stroud was above league average in pressure rate and only wore 35 hits compared with 56 last season.
Houston was 21st in run blocking. Stroud needs to be protected when he drops back to pass, otherwise Houston’s offense risks grinding to a halt. Their rushing attack cannot be relied upon with Pittsburgh’s front seven.
