Five Surprises from the First Three Weeks of the NBA Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
With three weeks of the NBA season in the books, it seems a good time to reflect on what we’ve seen so far. It’s still very much a small sample relative to the 82-game slog, and injuries provide a significant qualifier for the performances of certain teams, including LeBron James’ absence and De’Aaron Fox’s delayed season debut.
Still, teams have played roughly double-digit games and there are some trends beginning to appear across the Association. Some are expected. Others are raising some eyebrows.
Philly Looks Like a Contender
Tenth in net rating with one of the league’s best offenses, the 76ers are far better than expected. They look like one of the four or five top teams in the Eastern Conference, even with Joel Embiid clearly working his way up to full health and Paul George still in street clothes.
This start to the season raises greater questions about how Philly builds going forward. It’s Tyrese Maxey’s team now, with VJ Edgecombe taking to the NBA with alarming ease. Add in Jared McCain, Quentin Grimes, and quietly solid play from Justin Edwards and Trendon Watford, and Philly has short- and medium-term hope with this roster.
Keeping Embiid and George happy and healthy is the key. If they can play defense and support Maxey on offense, this team can rival anyone in the Eastern Conference.
Pacers Might Be Doomed Short-Term
The consensus was the Pacers would be plucky in Tyrese Haliburton’s absence. Other injuries have made Rick Carlisle’s life yet trickier, but not many expected Indiana to be 1-9 with the fourth-lowest projected win total, per Cleaning The Glass.
Only three teams have a worse net rating. The offense is by far the worst in the NBA. Pascal Siakam is trying as hard as he can, but there’s only so much he can do. Indy is -14.3 when he’s not on the floor.
The Pacers, as a rule, don’t tank. It probably won’t be intentional, but there’s a good chance they’re going to have great lottery odds in a stacked class.
Where Has Warriors’ Offense Gone?
Golden State is 18th in offense. The shot diet is healthy, the rebounding is passable given the make up of the roster, and transition game has been fine. This Warriors’ team is middling at both ends of the floor, ranking 20th in net rating and sitting 6-5.
That’s despite Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green shooting uncharacteristically well from downtown. Jonathan Kuminga has looked more accepting of being a supplementary player, too. The team has cratered when Green is off the floor over the first few weeks – let’s see how Steve Kerr addresses that and what that might mean for Al Horford’s minutes.
It’s too early to panic, but it might get worse before it gets better with the Dubs facing the Thunder and Spurs in three consecutive games.
Rollins Answers Milwaukee’s Backcourt Question
Ryan Rollins was little more than an afterthought a month ago. Selected 44th overall by the Hawks in 2022, Rollins had barely played across his first two seasons in the league before averaging 14.6 minutes per game and 4.8 field goal attempts.
In 2025-26, he’s started eight of his nine games and has averaged 31 minutes with 12.2 shots. Chuck in two steals per game and Rollins has moved to the third-shortest odds to win Most Improved Player at FanDuel. Milwaukee has a +4.8 net rating in his minutes compared with -1.6 when he’s off the floor.
The Bucks’ backcourt was a major question coming into the season amid Damian Lillard’s departure. Kevin Porter Jr. was then sidelined for a prolonged period and Cole Anthony doesn’t project as a lead guard. Rollins has stepped up, working well with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and playing active defense to elevate the Bucks in the early going.
Miami Waves Goodbye to Pick & Roll
The Heat were in the bottom 10 in offense is each of the last three seasons. Change was needed in Miami and it was duly delivered.
Miami was middle of the pack with 17.5 pick-and-rolls per game in 2024-25. In 2025-26, they are dead last at 6.7. No other team is below 13.8.
As a result, the Heat are above average in offensive rating, even with Tyler Herro sidelined through injury.
Erik Spoelstra has worked with Noah LaRoche to develop a similar offense to the one the Grizzlies’ ran early last season. It’s a read-and-react system relying on motion with very few playcalls from the bench.
Thus far, it has paid dividends. Even if it doesn’t make the Heat a contender, it has created a much more watchable offense, despite the absence of their top scorer.
