Storylines to Follow Across NBA After All-Star Break
by Sam Cox
The trade deadline has passed, and teams are well beyond the halfway point of the regular season, but there’s still plenty to keep fans engaged after the All-Star break.
Playoff seeding is very much up for grabs outside of the Thunder and Pistons atop their respective conferences. Some teams are pursuing the play-in, while others made trade deadline moves with the aim of enhancing their odds in this summer’s draft lottery.
Flying Hornets
Charlotte is into the play-in spots. Only two games behind the eighth-placed Heat in the loss column, the Hornets have an opportunity to be in the top half of the play-in and potentially earn the seven seed for the playoffs.
Since Dec. 13, the Hornets are ninth in defense(!), ranked first in offense, and third in net rating. They lead the NBA in rebounding percentage over that period.
Their core four-game group of LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, and Moussa Diabaté is undeniably an elite quartet. They have a net rating of +22.3 when on the court together and only see a marked decrease when LaMelo or Diabaté are off the court.
Charlotte has nine games against teams with limited to no motivation to win. There are plenty of other games they will be favored in, and every matchup looks winnable with how they’ve been playing over the last two months.
Tatum’s Recovery
Jayson Tatum was assigned to the Maine Celtics on Tuesday to continue his rehabilitation from an Achilles tear. The perennial All-NBA forward is still noncommittal about whether he will return this season.
What looked like a lost campaign for Boston has turned into something markedly more enjoyable. Boston is currently the two seed in the Eastern Conference and acquired Nikola Vučević for much-needed frontcourt depth at the trade deadline.
Just two teams have a better net rating than the Celtics this season. If, and it’s a big if, Tatum returns this year, they become a serious contender to reach the NBA Finals. The question then is how close Tatum is to his best. He won’t be 100%, but if Boston adds 80% of peak Tatum to this team, they will be a fearsome playoff opponent.
Harden’s Settling into New Surroundings (Again)
James Harden should be accustomed to changing teams midseason. It still represents a challenge for the 36-year-old, who went from a Clipper to a Cavalier before the trade deadline.
Harden was running the offense in Los Angeles. While he’s the nominal point guard for the Cavs, he’s likely to have fewer touches with Donovan Mitchell ranking seventh in usage rate and playing considerably more minutes than Harden’s previous co-star, Kawhi Leonard.
There shouldn’t be too much trouble striking up pick-and-roll chemistry with Jarrett Allen and/or Evan Mobley, but how does Harden find his place in the offense when both bigs and Mitchell are on the court?
Health Concerns
Along with Tatum’s return, injuries are inevitably going to shape how title odds move in the next few weeks. The Sixers, for instance, become a serious threat in the East if Joel Embiid maintains this level of performance.
In the Western Conference, the Nuggets have been dealing with a raft of injuries and are without Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon until at least March. A setback for either would have a major impact on their title chances.
Oklahoma City has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell sidelined until after All-Star at the very least. Jalen Williams has faced plenty of injury issues this season, too.
Houston has a slim chance of getting Fred VanVleet back this season, which would transform their outlook. Miles McBride getting back to full health before the postseason is paramount for the Knicks.
Health is always an important factor when the playoffs roll around, and this year is no exception. It’s not just about the stars either – most contending teams have injury uncertainty over one of their pivotal rotation players.
Historic Levels of Tanking
At least seven teams – the Wizards, Jazz, Kings, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Nets, and Pacers – are aggressively tanking. We are already seeing teams ‘rest’ their veterans or remove their best players at the end of the third quarter.
Other teams like the Bucks, Bulls, and Hawks could yet find themselves tanking, whether intentionally or otherwise.
The 2026 class projects to be incredibly strong, not only in the strength of the top three picks, but with impact players throughout the first round. Utah and Indiana are notably motivated to lose to try and keep their picks. Dallas doesn’t have control of its first-round pick until the 2030s, so they need to make the most of this year.
Washington isn’t planning to give minutes to Trae Young or Anthony Davis. Sacramento is arguably the worst team in the league. Memphis traded away Jaren Jackson Jr.
New Orleans is the only team outside the play-in that doesn’t benefit from losing, due to owing this year’s first-round pick to the Hawks.
We are about to see some egregious tanking ever – don’t be surprised if the NBA hand out multiple penalties before the end of the regular season.
