How to Bet on Five Potential NBA Overachievers
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Interest in NBA futures markets increases as opening night approaches. It’s a matter of days until the start of the regular season after what has felt like a particularly long, and largely uneventful, offseason.
Finding value in preseason betting is about identifying the teams over or underrated by the sportsbooks. Teams that have a high ceiling often provide value, whether that’s betting on their win total, division winner markets, or on them to reach the NBA Finals.
Here are five potential overachievers worth backing in the futures markets:
Hammer Spurs’ Over
A win total of 44.5 seems harsh on the Spurs. The presence of Victor Wembanyama makes them a legitimate candidate for a top-six placing in the Western Conference.
The roster isn’t perfect. There’s a lack of shooting in the backcourt, and a sizeable gap between Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and San Antonio’s third-best player. Still, the Spurs were an elite defense with Wemby on the floor last season and have the potential to be a top-10 offense if Fox fits as well as expected.
Backing this over isn’t saying the Spurs will be a top-four team, or even that they’ll avoid the play-in. They could hit this over and still miss the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference. There’s also the option to take San Antonio to win the division at +450.
Hawks Fancied For 50+ Wins
Atlanta is +142 to win 50+ games and +410 for 55+ wins. Quin Snyder has orchestrated dominant regular season teams previously, with his Jazz teams spending several years battling at the top of the Western Conference.
Synder is now blessed with an upwardly mobile Hawks roster. Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Jalen Johnson are one of the best wing quartets in the NBA. Trae Young’s assist tallies continue to rise. A healthy Kristaps Porziņģis can elevate this team at both ends.
They have the personnel to cover for Young’s defensive frailties. The offense, as has usually been the case since Young was drafted, should be above average with the potential for more.
Backing Orlando
DraftKings has the Magic at +600 to be the Eastern Conference’s top seed. This is very much in play.
Cleveland has proven its regular-season credentials and should be less worried about seeding than in previous years, plus Darius Garland is going to miss the start of the season. The Knicks, with Mike Brown at the helm, are not going to run their starters into the ground as they have before.
Orlando is poised for the regular-season breakout that younger teams have. They are hungrier for regular-season wins than their rivals and won’t have to worry about load management in the same way.
Desmond Bane was the ideal acquisition to pair with the Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs core. Expectations are high for Orlando, but they still have a high enough ceiling to overachieve.
Giannis Carries Milwaukee
What if Giannis Antetokounmpo puts the Bucks on his back? Milwaukee is +1200 to win the Central Division at FanDuel. Those odds reflect the general pessimism around the Bucks and their general lack of talent outside of the two-time MVP.
This is really a wager on Milwaukee finishing above Cleveland and Detroit. The Pistons resisted going all-in this summer and would be content with another top-six berth. The Cavs are going to be purely focused on being ready for the playoffs after consecutive postseason disappointments.
It’s feasible that Giannis, knowing he needs to have his foot to the floor in the regular season, goes absolutely nuclear. We’re talking 35/14/8. He’s more than a fringe MVP candidate, and it’s not out the question he wins the division in a weak Eastern Conference. (Milwaukee is also +950 to be the three seed at DraftKings).
Feisty Blazers
The Blazers are +280 for 40+ wins at FanDuel. Portland was competitive down the stretch last season, ranking 10th in net rating from January 18 until the end of the regular season, and posting a 23-18 record in the second half of the campaign.
Making the playoffs is probably out of reach, considering how many superior teams there are in the Western Conference, but the Blazers could hang around the play-in mix.
This team plays hard, and that’s only going to continue with Jrue Holiday replacing Anfernee Simons. There’s also considerable upside with Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe as breakout candidates.
