MLB Playoff Betting: Which Teams Represent Value to Make/Miss Playoffs?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Roughly a month of the 2025 MLB regular season remains. A portion of the big leagues are already settled into playoff position, either with commanding division leads or locked into one of the top wild-card spots.
There are still playoff berths up for grabs, however, with a couple of tight divisional races and a handful of hot teams on the outside looking in. The playoff picture could change considerably between now and the beginning of the wild-card round, which creates plenty of betting opportunities in the make/miss playoffs market.
Here are the best bets, as of Aug. 28, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds to Make the Playoffs (+590)
The Cubs are the only team with a better rotation ERA than the Reds in the second half. Cincy’s bullpen has been solid since the break, too, and they have climbed to only 3.5 games behind the final NL wild-card spot.
Since July 8, the Reds have gone 22-19. It’s nothing to get too excited about at this stage, but there are signs they could get hot in September with how dominant the rotation has been. If the lineup can join the party, they could hunt down the Mets.
Their schedule is one of the hardest in baseball, contributing to this lengthy price, but a three-game series with the Mets is a massive opportunity. They also have 12 games against the Pirates, Athletics, and Cardinals.
New York Yankees to Miss the Playoffs (+1600)
Fading the Yankees is often a good way to unlock betting value. New York is 26th in bullpen ERA and 14th in rotation ERA in the second half. Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, both added to reinforce the back end of the bullpen, have disappointed, with the former struggling in his appearances thus far, and the latter being sent to the minor leagues.
There have been signs of life from the Yankees’ offense over the last week or two, and they have a five-game lead in the loss column in the race for the AL wild-card spots. Their postseason berth is far from guaranteed, however.
They have 12 games to come against the Jays, Tigers, Astros, and Red Sox. Playing the Orioles seven times before the end of the season looks more favorable than it is – Baltimore has gone 41-36 since May 28.
Kansas City Royals to Make the Playoffs (+430)
If the Yankees miss the playoffs, it’s likely because of Kansas City. The Royals have a decent schedule, a top-10 offense in the second half, and have seen their pitching staff keep them in plenty of games over the last few weeks.
Since falling to 39-46 at the end of June, the Royals have gone 29-19. Only six teams have a higher wRC+ over that period.
The direction of travel is exactly what Royals fans want to see. This is a team on course to create a tight AL wild-card race, with pressure mounting on the Mariners, Astros, and Yankees.
New York Mets to Miss the Playoffs (+540)
Widely tipped to make the playoffs in MLB picks before and during the season, the Mets have endured a prolonged slump. They are at serious risk of missing the postseason altogether, with only a 3.5-game lead over the Reds in the wild-card race.
New York trails the Padres by 3.5 games, too. If Cincinnati is to make the postseason, it will almost certainly be at the Mets’ expense.
It’s a 26-37 slide. This isn’t the kind of run that can be written off as a blip. The Mets haven’t been playing like a playoff team for the last two months, and if this trajectory continues, they will find themselves missing out on October baseball for a seventh time in nine seasons.
The offense has come to life (third-best wRC+ in the second half). The same cannot be said of the pitching staff, which is 20th in ERA over the same period. Their rotation, which was overachieving expectations earlier in the year, has regressed significantly.
