Five Things We Have Learned From The First Half of the 2025 MLB Season

The 'second half' of the MLB season is traditionally thought of as after the All-Star break. Teams have already played half of their regular-season games, though, so this seems like an appropriate time to reflect on what we've seen across the big leagues so far this season.

There's a long way to go, of course, with teams having an NBA season's worth of games left to play. A lot can change between early July and the start of the wild-card round, but there's no harm looking back on the surprises and conclusions that can be drawn from the first three-plus months of the regular-season marathon.

Cal Raleigh is an All-Time Great

Cal Raleigh is having the best hitting season by a catcher in big-league history. Records are tumbling at a dramatic rate, including the most first-half home runs by a switch-hitter and the most first-half big flies by a catcher.

A Gold Glove winner 12 months ago, Raleigh is rewriting the record books at his position. His numbers at the halfway mark dwarf anything achieved even by the sport's all-time great catchers, including Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza, and Yogi Berra.

Perhaps most remarkably, this looks to be sustainable. Raleigh's Baseball Savant page is littered with red bars, featuring a massive leap in walk rate, and a 98th percentile barrel rate.

Braves Window Closing

Max Fried is gone. Chris Sale, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Reynaldo López are on the 60-day injured list. Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies are producing very little at the plate, while Austin Riley and Matt Olson are a couple of years removed from being elite hitters.

Even with Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. healthy, it's hard to be optimistic about the short- or medium-term outlook for the Atlanta Braves. They are six games below .500 as of July 3, leaving them nine behind the second-placed New York Mets in the loss column.

It's now consecutive years that the Braves have been a mediocre offensive team. The pitching staff has been decimated by injuries. This has been a great run, but their streak of seven playoff appearances is coming to an end, and it won't get any easier in 2026.

Blue Jays Can Contend

After losing 88 games in 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays entered the 2025 regular season on the cusp of a rebuild. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was yet to sign a new contract on opening day and Bo Bichette looks set to test free agency.

Toronto's future was unclear. Guerrero's extension in April didn't guarantee immediate success, particularly with questions around the depth of the lineup and the veterans in the rotation.

The Jays, after a slow start, have proven themselves as contenders. They are a top-10 offense, their rotation has been solid if unspectacular, and they are neck-and-neck with the New York Yankees at the top of the AL East.

Any thoughts of a rebuild have vanished. Toronto is a definite buyer at the trade deadline, with an outfield bat among the priorities.

Giant Adames Gamble

Buster Posey wasted no time breaking the San Francisco Giants' record contract. Posey handed out the largest contract in franchise history to Willy Adames over the winter (surpassing the deal Posey signed during his playing days).

Adames, the star the Giants have been waiting for after striking out on Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and others, has been one of MLB's biggest underachievers so far this season.

His xwOBA is the lowest it's been since the shortened 2020 season. Yes, his batted-ball numbers suggest his .646 OPS is lower than it should be, but the underlying metrics still aren't positive.

It's still early, of course, and Adames has traditionally been a better player in the second half, but this could quickly become one of baseball's worst contracts.

AL Central Returns to Normality

The AL Central providing three playoff teams in 2024 challenged all preseason MLB picks . It has – for a long time – been the weakest division in baseball.

Normal service has resumed in 2025. The Detroit Tigers are the best team in the sport, but no other team in the division is above .500. The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals are bottom six offenses, per wRC+, while the Minnesota Twins are dealing with Carlos Correa's underperformance and could be without Pablo López for most of the remainder of the season.

Every other division has at least two teams in legitimate contention. As of July 3, the NL East is the only other division with three teams under .500. The AL Central should only have one buyer at the trade deadline , leaving the Guards, Royals, and Twins to reevaluate their roster construction.