Men’s US Open: Tournament Preview and Picks
by Bradley Gibbs | by Tyler Doty
Sinner simply too good?
The first question we should be asking ahead of this tournament is this: is Jannik Sinner just too good to falter? Well, let’s consider his recent hard-court record. Since the end of the grass-court season, the Italian has played just once on a hard surface, reaching the final in Cincinnati, dropping zero sets en route, before retiring.
The event in Cincinnati was Sinner’s first on this surface since January’s Australian Open, which he won, dropping just two sets on his way to a very decisive Grand Slam victory. Therefore, it’s fair to say that he probably doesn’t need the sort of time to adjust that most players do, and if he’s fit, he’ll be very hard to stop. Let’s not forget this is a player who has not lost (ignoring retirements) any of his last 27 hard-court matches.
If all the top players bring their best, then the world number one probably gets it done, let’s be real. After all, as we saw at Wimbledon, if Sinner is on it, then it doesn’t really matter if anyone else is playing well.
Having said that, even the best of the best can come unstuck, and let’s face it, there are plenty of high-quality players ready to pounce if Sinner fumbles. We also cannot ignore the fact that Sinner comes into the US Open having retired when not looking comfortable against Carlos Alcaraz in that recent Cincinnati final, so there’s a chance that the world number one will not be at his best in New York, potentially leaving the door open for one of the other likely lads.
High-ranking players thrive at the US Open
When it comes to the biggest tournaments, the cream often rises, and it’s fair to say that not many players who aren’t high rankers get their hands on Flushing Meadows glory. When picking up the prize last season, Jannik Sinner was the world number one, as was Novak Djokovic when getting the job done in 2023.
Here are the last ten Men’s US Open winners, complete with their ATP ranking at the time of their victory:
2024 - Jannik Sinner (ranked 1st)
2023 - Novak Djokovic (ranked 1st)
2022 - Carlos Alcaraz (ranked 1st)
2021 - Daniil Medvedev (ranked 2nd)
2020 - Dominic Thiem (ranked 3rd)
2019 - Rafael Nadal (ranked 2nd)
2018 - Novak Djokovic (ranked 6th)
2017 - Rafael Nadal (ranked 1st)
2016 - Stan Wawrinka (ranked 3rd)
2015 - Novak Djokovic (ranked 1st)
As we can see, you essentially need to be a very high-ranking player to win the US Open. None of the last ten winners have been ranked lower than 6th when getting over the line, while only one of those ten was ranked lower than third.
Quite simply, in recent years, world number ones have dominated the US Open. This is particularly interesting when we consider that in general, the US Open is the Grand Slam where upsets are known to occur fairly frequently, but that’s on a match by match basis. When it comes to lifting the trophy, upsets have been few and far between in recent times.
US Open betting market
Unsurprisingly, the futures betting ahead of the US Open is dominated by the current champion, who is clearly a player to be feared on this surface. The bottom line is if Jannik Sinner brings his best tennis in Flushing Meadows over the next fortnight, then he’s going to be very, very hard to beat, which is why he’s been installed as the +110 favorite.
Here’s what the futures betting picture looks like ahead of Monday’s first-round matches:
Jannik Sinner +110
Carlos Alcaraz +175
Novak Djokovic +1400
Ben Shelton +1800
Jack Draper +2000
Alexander Zverev +2200
Taylor Fritz +3000
Daniil Medvedev +6000
Alex De Minaur +8000
All other players +10000 or bigger.
Medvedev might just offer some value for money
As I’ve said above, if he’s fit and ready to go, then Jannik Sinner will take some serious stopping, though given that he looked to be experiencing problems in that final against Alcaraz, I’d say it’s worth opposing the world number one in the futures market.
I’m going to take the Italian on with Daniil Medvedev, who can be bet on to go all the way at odds of +6000, which looks too sizable to me. Let’s face it, the Russian is a former US Open champion, while he doesn’t often deliver a poor performance at the fourth and final Grand Slam of the calendar year, reaching the final in both 2019 and 2023, while he was one of only two players to take a set off Sinner at last year’s renewal.
I’m not going to gloss over the fact that the one-time Grand Slam winner has been a little off the pace of late, but he is very much the type to come alive in Flushing Meadows, which is exactly what he did last season, reaching the quarters (where he lost to the tournament winner) having shown little form in his recent events.
At the very least, we’re looking at a player who loves the courts at Billie Jean King National TennisCenter, and if one or two of the big boys fall early on, his outright will shorten considerably, presenting us with the option to trade out for a profit. Even if you’re the type to let it ride, then Medvedev is not to be ignored at odds of +6000, not at all.
