How Seriously Should Surging Lakers Be Taken?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
The Los Angeles Lakers are 13-5 since the All-Star break. It’s a record that has given them a two-game lead over the fourth seed, even after Monday’s loss to the Detroit Pistons.
Los Angeles’ offense has been elite. That wasn’t an area they ever needed to worry about with the firepower at JJ Redick’s disposal. The defense, though, was a lingering concern and the Lakers have remarkably ranked 11th in defensive rating over the last 10 games.
How Real is Defensive Improvement?
Since the break, the Lakers are conceding the seventh-fewest threes and are middle of the pack in opponents getting to the rim. They are ninth in location effective field-goal percentage and have forced opponents into plenty of long twos.
There has been some good fortune with opponent shooting (Lakers’ opponents have hit only 32% of threes since All-Star), but limiting shots at the rim is key with Los Angeles’ lack of rim protection.
Opposing big men are still getting a few too many offensive boards, as indicated by the Lakers’ bottom 10 defensive rebounding rate in the halfcourt. It is, however, encouraging to see the Lakers rank in the top five in opponent transition efficiency.
Personnel Challenges
It has not been possible to have even a serviceable defense with Luka Dončić, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves on the floor in the past.
LeBron’s brief absence and Marcus Smart’s continued availability (played in 17 of last 18 games and averaged over 29 minutes per contest) has helped Redick find a workable formula on the defensive end. The Lakers are not without their challenges defensively, but this looks like a group that can be middle of the pack.
Deandre Ayton appears to be playing harder and has even spoken publicly about embracing his role on the team. The Lakers would still be a better team with a more defensively inclined center, but Ayton is at least doing a job in the short-term.
LeBron the Role Player
Perhaps the most remarkable change is how LeBron has settled into being a third option. It should help preserve energy for the defensive end, which the Lakers so desperately need, and it’s given the offense more of a clear structure with Dončić and Reaves running the show.
Since coming back from injury on March 12, James has largely embraced life as a play finisher. He’s been a screen setter and, since the break, has set some of his career lows in possessions as the pick-and-roll ball handler.
High steal counts reflect the four-time MVP’s activity on the defensive end. On offense, he’s been able to make plays out of the short roll, made timely cuts, and bullied mismatches when the opportunity arises.
LeBron’s efficiency is through the roof. It’s the latest reinvention in the greatest career in league history.
How Far Can the Lakers Go?
It’s risky putting a ceiling on a team with Dončić playing at his current level and a solid defense. The Lakers are capable of giving any team, including the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, a scare in a playoff series.
With the playoffs quickly approaching, Los Angeles seems in a better spot than the Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, and Houston Rockets. Denver would rightly be favored in a playoff series, but the Lakers should be able to overcome the Timberwolves or Rockets in a 3-6 matchup.
Likely facing the Spurs in the second round, perhaps the Lakers could take advantage of San Antonio’s inexperience. The Spurs are clearly the superior team, though, with an elite defense and an offense capable of exposing the Lakers’ defensive frailties.
It’s not infeasible that the Lakers make it to the Conference Finals, though a lot depends on how the bracket falls. A first-round exit is very much in play, but this recent surge at least gives some hope for Laker fans that they can win a series (maybe even two).
