How Feasible is a Midseason Giannis Trade?
by Sam Cox
The Milwaukee Bucks are cratering with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the sidelines. The two-time MVP is reportedly considering his future with the team as the Dec. 15 unofficial opening of trade season nears.
Milwaukee is 10-15 on the season and has lost its last seven games without Giannis. The Bucks have a -10.3 net rating when the two-time MVP isn’t on the court, and sit four games behind the ninth-seeded Atlanta Hawks.
Currently in the final play-in spot, the Bucks are only one game ahead of the Chicago Bulls. Clinging onto the play-in might provide some solace for Bucks fans, but it’s not particularly relevant when it comes to retaining Antetokounmpo.
Despite an 8-5 start, Milwaukee has shown it is a long way from contention, even in a wide-open Eastern Conference. There’s no guarantee a healthy Giannis would get the Bucks into the top half of the play-in, let alone into a top six spot. None of the nine teams ahead of the Bucks in the standings are going to tail off in the next few weeks or months, barring major injuries.
It's surely the end of the road for Giannis in Milwaukee unless he’s willing to tick over as a play-in team for the remainder of his prime. The Bucks don’t have salary flexibility or assets to make their team more competitive, and it’s clear the roster built after waiving Damian Lillard isn’t good enough.
Trade Rumors Heating Up
Along with his agent Alex Saratsis, Antetokounmpo has begun discussions with the Bucks about his future. It feels like there’s only one conclusion possible – Milwaukee has done all it can to retain Giannis with moves for Jrue Holiday, Lillard, and Myles Turner over the year, but they have nowhere to go.
It’s been reported that the New York Knicks had an exclusive negotiating window with Giannis in the summer. A deal could not be agreed, and Milwaukee won’t allow the Knicks the same luxury if the two-time MVP asks for a trade midway through the current season.
Giannis is under contract until the end of next season with a $62,786,682 for 2027-28. Any team that traded for the Greek Freak would be able to offer him a four-year, $275 million maximum deal through 2023-31 six months after he was acquired.
An acquiring team would get a guaranteed two playoff runs out of Antetokounmpo, but they will obviously be eager to know if he would re-sign. Despite potentially being under contract for two-and-a-half seasons, Giannis has leverage in trade talks. Teams will be reluctant to pay the high price if he’s not going to sign an extension.
Landing Spots
If this trend continues, the Knicks may regret not utilizing that exclusive window now. He’s a dominant interior scorer, a talented playmaker, and one of the best all-around defenders on the planet.
Giannis is, at worst, the fourth-best player in the NBA.
In the Western Conference, the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs stand out with their war chests of draft picks and young talent. The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors will be rumored, but neither have the assets to get a deal done unless Giannis forces his way to either team.
The Atlanta Hawks make a lot of sense. Atlanta can give Milwaukee some control over its upcoming drafts and has Trae Young’s salary to use in the deal. Pairing Antetokounmpo with Jalen Johnson is incredibly appealing and would make the already impressive Hawks into the East’s favorites.
Could the Miami Heat get the star they have been craving for years? Other teams can put together more compelling packages. Giannis, though, might see staying in the East as an opportunity, given the strength of the top of the West. A defense anchored by Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo would be terrifying.
