An Early Look at World Cup Betting After the Latest International Break
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
It’s a while until we’ll be making World Cup picks, but it’s never too soon to look ahead to the biggest single-sport event in the world. The recent international break gave an all-important look at the contenders for next summer’s tournament, with some impressing, and others looking a long way from tournament ready.
Yes, players in Europe have pretty much a full season to play before the World Cup. Players will suffer plenty of injuries, and there’s sufficient time to go in and out of form on several occasions. The national teams that competed over the last week or so were a long way from the finished article.
Still, national team managers have much less time with their squads than it seems before the World Cup gets underway. Each training session, each one-sided qualifier, is important for managers, coaches, and players alike.
2026 World Cup Odds
- Spain +470
- France +600
- Brazil +600
- England +650
- Argentina +800
- Germany +900
- Portugal +1200
- Netherlands +1800
- Italy +2300
- Uruguay +2600
- Belgium +2900
- USA +3400
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Spaniards Well Clear
Emphatic away wins against Bulgaria and Turkey were the latest reminder that Spain are the best team in the world. They have six points from six in World Cup qualifying, and host Georgia and Bulgaria in the next international break.
France’s performances were less impressive, with a 2-0 win over Ukraine in Poland and a 2-1 victory against Iceland in Paris. There has been considerable turnover in Les Bleus’ squad since the last World Cup, with many of their tournament veterans replaced by fresh faces like Michael Olise, Malo Gusto, and Khephren Thuram.
The +600 odds on Brazil are very generous. Their squad isn’t in the same league as Spain or France on paper. Defeat to Bolivia in challenging altitude doesn’t warrant too much reading into, but it’s a reminder that this is far from the invincible Samba squad we have seen in previous generations.
This is Carlo Ancelotti’s first foray into national team management. Don Carlo is more than accustomed to pressure from his years in charge of Real Madrid, but the infrequent squad meetups and difficult sustaining selection consistency are challenges he’s yet to face.
Uncertainty From Three Lions
Thomas Tuchel has won his first four competitive matches as England manager. The first three were largely uninspiring, including a 2-0 win over Andorra on Saturday, but the drubbing of Serbia on Tuesday was a real statement from the Three Lions.
Like Ancelotti, Tuchel’s experience in the international game is limited. He inherited an England team with back-to-back runners-up placings at the Euros and a semi-final World Cup appearance in 2018. It’s a squad with a mix of experience and ascending talent.
It feels too early to make any sweeping judgements on this England team ahead of next summer’s World Cup. Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer, Jack Grealish, and Bukayo Saka missed out on the squad for this international break, and this defense needs to face a proper test.
Familiar Challengers Loom
Argentina and Germany are always in the mix when the World Cup rolls around. A defeat to Ecuador in a dead rubber doesn’t prompt any hot takes for Argentina, while Germany’s defeat to Slovakia is worth some concern.
The defeat comes after Die Mannschaft drew with a weak Italy team before losing to Portugal and France in the knockout rounds of the Nations League. This isn’t the formidable Germany of years past – the squad doesn’t boast an array of eye-catching talent, and there’s a lot of work to do before the World Cup kicks off.
Argentina have experience in defense, industry in midfield, and should still have Lionel Messi to pair with Lautaro Martinez and/or Julian Alvarez in the final third. It’s a formula that worked in Qatar, but Messi’s ageing makes it hard to see them as serious contenders next summer.
Can Anyone Else Compete?
Portugal are the only other realistic contender. Italy got the two wins they needed during the most recent break, but their dramatic 5-4 win over Israel was hardly convincing.
The Netherlands drew with Poland and only narrowly beat Lithuania. Despite becoming the Oranje’s all-time top scorer, a continued reliance on Memphis Depay for goals puts a ceiling on the Dutch.
Uruguay’s qualifying form has been far too patchy. Belgium were outclassed in the Nations League and have missed their opportunity with the Golden Generation.
Norway, currently +6500 to lift the trophy, are a team to keep an eye on, and could become a value bet to make a deep run with Erling Haaland leading the way. A lack of competitive soccer might work against the USA, who will go almost 12 months without a meaningful fixture.
Despite needing a late winner to beat Hungary, Portugal are a decent option at +1200. Their odds should shorten to +900 or below in the coming months.
