2025 CONMEBOL Qualifiers: Who's in the race for the World Cup, and who could be eliminated?
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Argentina Is In. Who Else Can Join Them?
Argentina, the only team officially qualified so far, booked their ticket to the 2026 World Cup after a dominant 4-1 win over Brazil on Matchday 14. The reigning world champions are the only squad with a stress-free run to the finish. But several other South American nations are inching closer to locking in a spot and could avoid waiting until the final qualification window in September to know their fate.
Matchday 16 Schedule:
- Bolivia vs. Chile (4:00 PM)
- Uruguay vs. Venezuela (8:00 PM)
- Peru vs. Ecuador (8:30 PM)
- Argentina vs. Colombia (9:00 PM)
- Brazil vs. Paraguay (9:45 PM)
Kickoff times are local to the host country.
Ecuador, Brazil, and Paraguay Eye Direct Qualification
These three teams have a shot at joining Argentina in securing a direct berth on Matchday 16—but none of them fully control their own destiny. Ecuador and Paraguay are in the best position with 24 points each, sitting six points ahead of Venezuela (currently in the playoff spot). If both teams can at least draw their matches and Venezuela loses to Uruguay, they’ll be on the brink of clinching.
Brazil, sitting on 22 points, must beat Paraguay and hope Venezuela loses to have a chance to qualify early. Otherwise, they'll have to wait until Matchday 17. Check out our Brazil vs Paraguay prediction here.
| Standing | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 34 |
| 2 | Ecuador | 24 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 24 |
| 4 | Brazil | 22 |
| 5 | Uruguay | 21 |
| 6 | Colombia | 21 |
| 7 | Venezuela | 18 |
| 8 | Bolivia | 14 |
| 9 | Peru | 11 |
| 10 | Chile | 10 |
Chile and Peru Hanging by a Thread
Chile ("La Roja") needs a miracle just to reach the playoff spot—the best-case scenario for avoiding a third straight missed World Cup. Ricardo Gareca’s squad needs to win all three of their remaining matches and hope Venezuela doesn’t pick up another point.
Peru’s outlook isn’t much better. With just one point more than Chile, their campaign is hanging by a thread as well.
The Race Between Direct Spots and the Playoff
The gap between 6th and 8th place might be small, but the stakes are massive. Depending on results, a team could qualify directly, fall into the playoffs, or miss out altogether. Colombia and Uruguay are locked in this battle, now just three points ahead of Venezuela with nine still to play for.
As mentioned in our Uruguay vs. Venezuela prediction, this matchup on this matchday is a huge swing game that could shake up the standings.
Uruguay (“La Celeste”) have only won one of their last nine qualifying matches, while Venezuela (“La Vinotinto”) have picked up six points in their last two games.
Colombia, meanwhile, are on high alert. The “Cafeteros” haven’t won in their last five matches and have slipped to 6th after being in the top three. If they want to qualify without sweating it out, they need to get back to winning.
Lastly, Bolivia may still have a puncher’s chance, two of their last three games are at home. A strong finish could get them into the mix for 7th place, even after a painful loss to Venezuela last time out.
