Best Player Prop Bets For NFL Wild Card Round
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
A tantalizing wild card round kicks off with the Rams in Carolina. Los Angeles is favored by a historic margin for Saturday’s game, which is followed by an NFC North showdown between the Packers and Bears.
Josh Allen takes the Bills to Jacksonville as narrow favorites, while the Niners head to the City of Brotherly Love, and Drake Maye’s Patriots host the Chargers. The round wraps up with Aaron Rodgers and C.J. Stroud matching up in Pittsburgh.
This NFL postseason has a different look from previous years, with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson missing out, but it still promises to be an enthralling weekend of action.
Tetairoa McMillan Under 4.5 Receptions (-140)
Carolina’s star receiver has gone under this line in five of the last six games. The Rams are an elite pass defense, ranking 10th in opponent EPA per pass play.
Los Angeles was 10th in passes defended during the regular season. McMillan was only targeted 5.5 times per game over the last six. It’s commonplace for quarterbacks to look to their number one options during the playoffs, but it’s not like Bryce Young is going to dissect this Rams’ defense.
Young’s passing yardages have been pretty underwhelming over the last few weeks. The Rams will do all they can to nullify McMillan.
Caleb Williams Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Caleb Williams cleared this line in his last four regular season games, including posting 250 passing yards against these Packers. Williams averaged 231.9 passing yards per game and the Packers were a below average pass defense, per EPA.
Green Bay was 27th in passes defended. The defense has been decimated by injuries, including Micah Parsons. Williams won’t be facing much pressure from this Packers group, despite their pass rushing numbers during the regular year.
Game script is the biggest threat to this wager. Chicago has the running game to lean heavily on its rushing attack if they take a lead.
Trevor Lawrence Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-138)
Trevor Lawrence had at least 22 pass completions in the final three games of the regular season. His pass completion percentage across that period was far higher than his season average.
Buffalo is a decent pass defense, but they don’t generate a massive amount of pressure and they are one of the bottom teams in passes defended.
Lawrence has shown poise in the pocket over the last few weeks of the regular season, even with the Jags ranking in the bottom 10 in PFF’s offensive line rankings.
Christian McCaffrey Over 106.5 Receiving and Rushing Yards (-114)
Christian McCaffrey went over this line in 12 out of 17 regular-season games. The Eagles are still a very good defensive team, but this line feels harsh on McCaffrey given how productive he was throughout the regular year.
The do-it-all superstar averaged 125.1 scrimmage yards per game. Bijan Robinson was the only player with more scrimmage yards.
On top of being a highly productive running back, McCaffrey also ranked among the highest usage receivers in the NFL.
Drake Maye Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Drake Maye went over this line in eight of the last 10 regular-season games. He led the NFL in pass completion percentage, adjusted yards per pass attempt, and QBR.
An average of 258.5 passing yards per game is, of course, eye-catching. It also suggests the sportsbooks have been a bit harsh on Maye, even against a Chargers defense that’s done well against the pass.
Los Angeles has its work cut out to take away Maye’s big plays. While their secondary has kept opponent pass completions under control, it’s still a big ask to force Maye under this number.
Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-102)
With their season on the line, the Steelers had Aaron Rodgers throw the ball 47 times. Over the final three games of the regular season, Rodgers made between 39 and 47 passes.
Why would Pittsburgh move away from that formula in the playoffs? Sure, the Texans have a ferocious pass rush, but the Steelers have an offense designed for Rodgers to get the ball out quickly.
Getting odds of -102 in this market is too good to turn down.
