Best Player Prop Bets For Week 18 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
It’s the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season. Most of the playoff spots have already been decided, but there’s still plenty to be intrigued about, including exact seeding and the draft order.
Attention has turned to the playoffs for some. Others might be looking at contract incentives, which are bound to be seen as a key factor by some social media tipsters. It’s easy to overthink Week 18 – sportsbooks have already adjusted for players pursuing incentives and teams playing their second or third string guys.
Rico Dowdle Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-108)
Losers in seven of their last eight games, the Buccaneers have endured a historic collapse from a position of strength. On the defensive side, Tampa Bay has struggled to stop the run and has conceded at least 101 rushing yards in four straight games.
Sitting at 8-8, the Carolina Panthers are a win away from winning the division. Rico Dowdle has been a revelation for the Panthers, carrying a heavy workload for a team that hasn’t been able to rely on Bryce Young posting big-time passing numbers.
At 14.3 attempts per game, this line seems too low for Dowdle. Sure, he’s not been rushing as frequently over the last couple of weeks, but this is a matchup that should favor Carolina’s ground attack.
Sam Darnold Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-138)
Only three teams pass the ball less frequently than the Seattle Seahawks. Despite enjoying another good regular season, Sam Darnold hasn’t been overexerted by Seattle. He has gone under this line in four of the last six games (of the two games that went over, one of those went to overtime).
Back in Week 1, Darnold threw the ball 23 times for 150 yards against the Niners. San Francisco has been no better than mediocre at defending the pass, per EPA, but Seattle doesn’t need to adjust its gameplan too drastically here.
Darnold is going to throw the ball – he just won’t be dropping back 30+ times. It’s vital the Seahawks keep the Niners honest with their rushing attack.
Tyler Shough Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Tyler Shough has cleared this line in three consecutive games and in six of the last seven. He has powered the Saints to four consecutive wins and has had at least 272 passing yards in each of his last three games.
Ignore the 212.5 passing yards per game. That number is dragged down by making only two passes on his debut and struggling in his first two starts. The rookie is averaging north of 260 yards over the last seven games and has completed more than 70% of his passes.
Atlanta is a good rather than great pass defense. Shough had 243 passing yards when these teams matched up earlier in the season.
C.J. Stroud Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-114)
It’s five straight wins for C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Stroud has regained the form that made him one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks a couple of years ago.
In that spell, Stroud has cleared this line in three of the last five games. He had 276 passing yards against the Colts earlier this year. Indianapolis has lost six games in a row and allowed a minimum of 247 passing yards in that period.
While Stroud’s numbers aren’t enough to put him in the MVP conversation, he’s been getting the job done for his team. This line feels harsh given his production during Houston’s winning streak.
Caleb Williams Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-114)
This is a line Caleb Williams has cleared in three consecutive games. Detroit is only a middling defense against the pass. Williams has improved markedly since having 207 yards against the Lions earlier this season.
The Bears have perhaps the NFL’s most diverse, complex running attack. It has kept defenses off balance, enabling Williams to work in the pocket. It’s worked smoothly, with the Bears becoming one of the biggest overachievers in the league this term.
There’s nothing about the Lions’ pass defense that suggests they can keep Williams to a low total here. Detroit doesn’t generate a great deal of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so the former first overall pick should have time to operate.
