Best Player Prop Bets For Week 13 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
The Week 13 NFL slate features games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Those four contests are tantalizing in their own right, but our focus in this piece is on Sunday’s action.
That means Redzone followed by Sunday Night Football, which sees the Denver Broncos take on the Washington Commanders. Even with big names in action on Thursday and Friday, Sunday still has fascinating contests, including the high-flying Rams facing the Panthers, and the stuttering Bills taking on the Steelers.
Cam Ward to Throw an Interception (-120)
Just one team has claimed more picks than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Cam Ward’s three-game streak without throwing a pick hasn’t been without its scares – he’s been sacked 11 times in that period and has been pretty wayward.
Tennessee has the second-highest pass play rate in the league. Ward has thrown the ball 79 times over the last two games. The Jags lead the league in passes defend and sit in the top 10 in opponent pass completion percentage.
Only three quarterbacks have a higher bad throw rate than the first overall pick. Baker Mayfield, Dillon Gabriel, J.J. McCarthy, and Caleb Williams are the only quarterbacks with a lower on target rate.
De’Von Achane Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)
This feels like an obvious over. De’Von Achane has cleared this line in each of the last two games (comfortably so) and in three of his last four.
The New Orleans Saints have a solid defense overall, but they have faced the second-most rushing attempts due to how much time they have spent trailing. The Miami Dolphins have won three of their last four, with Achane clearing this line in each of those three wins.
Favored by 5.5 points with homefield advantage, the Dolphins should be able to control this game. Achane should break the 20-rush threshold.
Jerry Jeudy Over 2.5 Receptions (-106)
This line shows how little faith the sportsbooks have in Shedeur Sanders. Jerry Jeudy has had three or more receptions in six out of 11 games. He’s coming off his second-fewest targets of the season, but Jeudy is still 35th in target share across the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns are facing a San Francisco 49ers team that’s in the bottom 10 in net yards allowed per pass attempt and which ranks second worst in opponent pass attempts per game. The gamescript is going to force Sanders to throw the ball down field.
There shouldn’t be this much belief in a Niners’ defense that has the fourth-highest opponent pass completion percentage.
C.J. Stroud Under 234.5 Passing Yards (-114)
C.J. Stroud has only gone over this line twice in seven full games. The Indianapolis Colts are in the top 10 in nets yards per pass attempt and pressure rate. They also place above average in opponent pass completion percentage.
The Houston Texans’ offensive line had their best game of the season against the Buffalo Bills last Thursday. It’s been a long way for the Texans, which could work in their advantage, but it’s hard to see how they keep this Colts’ pass rush at bay.
Stroud is averaging 212.8 passing yards per game. Even with a favorable gamescript, this line seems like an overestimation.
Courtland Sutton Over 3.5 Receptions (-136)
Courtland Sutton was targeted eight times in the win over the Chiefs. He has gone over this line in seven out of 11 games. He was targeted six times in one of the four games he went under.
The Commanders are in the bottom 10 in opponent pass completions, passes defended, and pressure rate. Bo Nix has been inconsistent this season, but this couldn’t be a much more favorable matchup.
It’s a game where Nix should have time to find his receivers. He’s going to be passing from a clean pocket more often than not, and the Commanders have one of the worst secondary groups in the league.
