Best Player Prop Bets For Week 12 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
It’s safe to say the Week 12 NFL slate isn’t as tantalizing as Week 11 was. There are still some good games, including the Bears hosting the Steelers, and the 5-5 Chiefs taking on the 8-2 Colts.
While there aren’t many high-profile matchups to attract neutrals, it still promises to be a fascinating Sunday of NFL action. We are spoilt for choice in the player prop markets.
Drake Maye Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Drake Maye has cleared this line in four consecutive games. He’s one of the leading contenders for MVP and has an incredibly favorable matchup in the form of the Bengals.
Cincinnati has conceded 7.3 net yards per pass attempt. Only three teams pressure the quarterback less frequently and two teams have registered fewer quarterback hits.
PFF ranks the Patriots as the ninth-best offensive line heading into Week 12. Maye is going to be able to boss this game from the pocket and should have no problem racking up passing yards. Cincy doesn’t have the secondary to stop his long, downfield bombs.
Lamar Jackson Under 24.5 Pass Attempts (-104)
Lamar Jackson has gone under this line in three of his last four games. Baltimore should lean heavily on its ground attack against a Jets team that’s only middling in yards allowed per opponent rush.
With the Ravens sitting as 13.5-point favorites, the game script is going to lend itself to Baltimore rushing repeatedly. There’s no need for the Ravens to put Jackson in harm’s way by having him make plays from the pocket – hand the ball off to Derrick Henry and pick up another crucial win.
Only three teams in the NFL have run pass plays less frequently than the Ravens so far this year. There’s no reason for that to change on Sunday.
Rashid Shaheed Over 2.5 Receptions (+102)
These odds were too good to turn down. Rashid Shaheed was targeted five times – albeit for just two receptions – in Sam Darnold’s meltdown performance against the Rams last time out.
Shaheed’s role in Seattle’s offense is key. He is there to keep the secondary honest and avoid teams completely selling out on Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Darnold needs to keep throwing to Shaheed, and a matchup with the Titans is an ideal time to work on that chemistry.
Tennessee is 25th in passes defended and concedes the second-highest pass completion percentage.
J.J. McCarthy Under 17.5 Pass Completions (-104)
J.J. McCarthy is yet to show he can be sufficiently accurate in the NFL. He has eight interceptions in five games played and looked all at sea in the Vikings’ loss to the Bears last weekend, completing only 16 of his 32 pass attempts.
McCarthy has gone under this line in four of his five games. Green Bay concedes the fewest yards per pass attempt and is tied for the fifth-most quarterback hits. The reads won’t be easy for McCarthy and he’s going to come under pressure from this Packers’ defensive line.
Don’t be surprised if Minnesota’s second-year quarterback has to wear a few hits. This line is too high given how he’s performed so far.
Bijan Robinson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Drake London, who has the third-highest target share in the NFL, isn’t expected to suit up for the Falcons. Kirk Cousins is starting at quarterback with Michael Penix Jr. ruled out.
Cousins can still throw the ball deep, but he’s going to need to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson as a receiver. We could see Robinson and Tyler Allgeier share the field even more frequently.
Robinson has gone over this line in half his games. Atlanta has used their superstar back in the passing game frequently, and that usage should increase with London sidelined and Cousins under center.
