Best Player Prop Bets For Week 11 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Week 10’s player props were very successful thanks to Caleb Williams, Derrick Henry, and others. We are just as confident heading into Week 11 with a packed slate to choose from, including a titanic matchup in Buffalo, an AFC West showdown, and the injury riddled Chargers on the road in Jacksonville.
Here are our top player prop bets for this week’s action:
Caleb Williams Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-114)
We are once again rolling with Caleb Williams. Sportsbooks aren’t showing enough respect to the former first-overall pick.
Williams has cleared this line in four of the last seven games. He was only just under with 220 last week in an eventful win over the Giants. Week 11 might sound like a tricky matchup in the Vikings, but don’t be fooled.
Minnesota blitzes more than any other team. Williams – eight touchdowns, no picks – has excelled against the blitz all year. Chicago’s offensive line ranks among the best in the NFL.
The Vikings are 31st in passes defended and below average in opponent pass completion rate. Only five teams concede more yards per pass completion.
Jordan Love Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-102)
The Giants have a stacked defensive line. Brian Burns leads the NFL in sacks. Dexter Lawrence forces pressures up the middle, and Kayvon Thibodeaux and Abdul Carter are highly talented edge players.
Green Bay was 24th in pass blocking efficiency last week. Elgton Jenkins, their starting center, has been ruled out for the year, and will be replaced by a much inferior blocker in Sean Rhyan.
Jordan Love has gone under this line in six out of nine games this season. New York is quietly above average in opponent pass completion percentage.
Jaylen Warren Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (+116)
Jaylen Warren has only gone over this line once in eight games. It’s clear sportsbooks expect the gamescript to push the Steelers towards running the ball, but that’s far from guaranteed with how they have played so far this season.
Pittsburgh won’t necessarily be able to keep this Bengals offense quiet. Warren might also have to share carries with Kenneth Gainwell, who could return to the rushing attack after being used exclusively as a receiver in Week 10.
Yes, Cincy is a terrible rushing defense, but this line is at least one attempt too high for Warren’s usage thus far. Even with Aaron Rodgers’ struggles last week, the Steelers need to establish their passing game.
RJ Harvey Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)
Watch out for a major increase in RJ Harvey’s carries. J.K. Dobbins, a candidate to be put on injured reserve, is set to be unavailable this weekend. Dobbins has gone over this line in all but one of his games so far this season.
Harvey, picked 60th overall in the 2025 Draft, is going to be Denver’s lead back. The Broncos are going to need to control the ground game against a Chiefs team that has been better against the pass than run, per PFF.
Denver can’t afford for this to become a shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix. They are above average in run play frequency, which plays into Harvey’s favor here. He doesn’t need to match Dobbins’ average to hit this over – Sean Payton shouldn’t be concerned about handing over to the rookie, who has averaged 4.3 rushes per attempt so far.
Tetairoa McMillan Over 4.5 Receptions (-114)
Tetairoa McMillan has 16 receptions over his last three games. He has run the 11th-most routes in the NFL and been targeted the 10th-most times. PFF grades only 15 receivers better, and he is the clear first option for Bryce Young.
Of wideouts to have played more than four games, only 10 have a higher target share than the Panthers’ rookie sensation.
Dee Alford is projected for the most snaps on McMillan, closely followed by A.J. Terrell. Neither will be able to shut down Carolina’s big-bodied receiver. Averaging 4.6 receptions per game on the year, this is great value.
