Best Player Prop Bets For Week 10 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Week 9 was relatively successful with our NFL player props. CJ Stroud, Daniel Jones, Oronde Gadsden, and Jordan Mason hit their respective props, while a season-ending injury stopped Tucker Kraft from going over 4.5 receptions.
We're optimistic as we look forward to Week 10. There are several matchups that lean heavily towards certain betting markets, starting with a former first overall pick.
Caleb Williams Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Caleb Williams has cleared this line in three of the last four games. He's had 565 passing yards across his previous two outings.
The Giants are a middling pass defense. They defend plenty of passes, but they don't get much pressure on the quarterback. While they have kept opposing passing games under control over the last couple of weeks, New York won't have such an easy time against a Bears offense that's up in sixth in points per game.
Jevon Holland and Paulson Adebo could both miss Sunday's contest in Chicago. With Chicago's porous defense, the game script is likely to lean towards the Bears passing the ball.
Derrick Henry Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)
Derrick Henry has had over 16.5 rushing attempts in three consecutive games. The game script should be in the Ravens' favor against this Vikings team – Baltimore is a 4.5-point favorite on the road.
Minnesota is 18 th in EPA allowed per opponent rush. Henry had 119 yards on the ground last time out, and the Ravens should look to bully this Vikings' defense with repeated inside runs.
There's nothing to get excited about with this Minnesota run defense. It's a passable group, but they aren't going to be able to keep Henry under wraps with how he's played in the last three weeks. Suggestions he was in decline have been emphatically disproved.
Dillon Gabriel Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
Are we really prepared for how bad the Jets are going to be? Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams have been traded to the Colts and Cowboys, respectively. Quincy Williams has been removed from the starting lineup.
The Jets were 27th in EPA allowed per pass with Gardner. Dillon Gabriel, despite far from inspiring results, has been allowed to air it out. He's thrown 33 or more passes in three of the last four games.
Even with the Browns likely to lead for much of this game, we still fancy Cleveland to lean on their passing game. Gabriel should be able to pick this Jets defense apart.
Juwan Johnson Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Juwan Johnson has had 13 receptions over the last three games. He's hit this over twice in that span.
Those numbers were put up with Rashid Shaheed. Traded at the deadline, Shaheed's absence moves Johnson to a clear no. 2 receiver behind Chris Olave. Yes, Johnson was the second option when Olave was sidelined, but his role in the offense has been consolidated by Shaheed's departure.
New Orleans is facing a Panthers defense that has only been mediocre against the pass. Per PFF, Johnson has averaged 4.8 receptions per game when facing similar defenses this season.
Look for Tyler Shough to look for Johnson on short first-down passes. He could hit this on the first couple of drives.
Davante Adams Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
This line is too low for Davante Adams. He's cleared this in three of the last five games. On Sunday, he's facing a Niners' defense that's in the bottom 10 in opponent pass completion percentage and sits below the league average in opponent EPA per pass.
Targeted 70 times in eight games, Adams has near-elite usage, despite being overshadowed by Puka Nacua's historic start to the season.
This threatens to be a shootout between two NFC West rivals. Matthew Stafford should throw the ball over 35 times – we only need five of those to be caught by Adams.
