Best Player Prop Bets For Divisional Round
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
The NFL season is down to its last eight teams. Denver and Seattle join the fray after enjoying a week to recuperate thanks to being the top seeds in their respective conferences, while the other six teams had to battle through an entertaining wild-card round.
This weekend’s slate begins with the Broncos hosting the Bills followed by an NFC West matchup between the Niners and Seahawks. Sunday sees Drake Maye’s Patriots host a hostile Texans defense and the Rams are on the road to face the Bears.
Josh Allen Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Josh Allen’s last two games have seen him throw 262 and 273 passing yards. His performance in the Wild Card Round was a masterpiece with only seven incompletions and a passing score.
It was an example of what he can do in this postseason. Buffalo isn’t the best team in the AFC, but there’s no question Allen is the best player. The Bills need their quarterback to carry them if they are to get past a Broncos squad that’s the better all-around team on paper.
Don’t be put off by how good Denver’s defense has been. Allen didn’t put a foot wrong against a similar steely Jags defense – he should cruise past this line.
RJ Harvey Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (+106)
RJ Harvey has hit this over in three of the last five games. Denver should do all it can to establish the run against Buffalo, who have struggled to stop the ground game throughout the season.
Only two teams conceded more yards per opponent rushing attempt in the regular season. The Giants were the only team with a worse EPA against the run.
The Broncos need to put the ball in Harvey’s hands. Their best chance of winning is by keeping Allen off the field – they need to try and elongate their drives as much as possible.
Christian McCaffrey Over 110.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-114)
This bet cashed for us last week so we are again riding with Christian McCaffrey. After averaging 125 scrimmage yards during the regular season, McCaffrey had 114 yards against the Eagles in the Wild Card Round, despite being held to 3.2 yards per carry.
Sure, the line is a little higher this time around, but there’s still value. McCaffrey has had 111 or more scrimmage yards in 12 out of 18 games so far this season.
Seattle kept him relatively quiet in their second regular-season meeting. The Seahawks have a great defense. Even so, we know McCaffrey is going to be integral for the Niners’ offense, so a high usage rate should take us over this line.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)
TreVeyon Henderson has had double-digit rushing attempts in nine of the last 11 games. He was just shy of this line in the win over the Chargers last weekend.
Houston is the league’s best pass defense. New England’s blocking will be tested, and Drake Maye needs to play better than he did against Los Angeles. An inconsistent Patriots rushing attack will be relied upon, leaving Henderson with a major role to place.
This isn’t a game where the Pats can depend solely on Maye to carry the offense. He’s going to need his running backs to perform so the Texans can’t just lock in on the pass.
Colston Loveland Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Rams were a middling defense against tight ends in the regular season. Colston Loveland just had 137 yards on 15 targets and eight receptions against the Packers, who were elite at keeping opposing tight ends quiet.
Chicago has gradually ramped up Loveland’s workload throughout the season. He’s had 94, 91, and 137 receiving yards in the last three games and has been targeted double-digit times in each of those games.
Loveland was targeted more than double as often as any other Bears receiver last weekend. His 13 targets in Week 18 were nine more than any of his teammates. This line is far too low.
