Best Midweek Player Props in the EPL
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Where is the player prop value ahead of the midweek games?
Late December is always a busy time for teams in the EPL, and it’s been no different this time around. Following lots of action on December 27th, plus a few games on the 28th, we’re back to it on the 30th, when six games take place.
We’ll then have another one-day pause, before heading straight back into battle on New Year’s Day, when four more games will get underway, including an intriguing clash in West London, where Thomas Frank will take on his old team as Spurs go up against Brentford.
Now, after Saturday’s lovely +350 winner, let’s get stuck into those player props. The following selections appeal based on the early odds from our top sportsbooks.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Martin Zubimendi to Receive a Card
On Tuesday, Arsenal and Aston Villa clash at Emirates Stadium, and that’s where I’m kicking things off with a card bet. Martin Zubimendi hasn’t been booked for a while, now going six games in all competitions without picking up a card, but that run could soon come to an end.
After all, this is a player who has a habit of making multiple fouls in big games, doing so against Man United, Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Tottenham and Bayern so far this season.
We saw Zubimendi get booked against Chelsea not that long ago, while he also saw yellow against Liverpool earlier in the campaign, so we know he’s got form in this sort of game.
Now up against a tricky and confident Villa side that will be looking to pounce on the break, the sly Spaniard is worth betting on at odds of +285.
Chelsea v Bournemouth: Marc Cucurella to Receive a Card
I’m going to take a similar route in the Chelsea vs Bournemouth game, ahead of which Marc Cucurella rates as a very decent card bet. The Spanish international, like Zubimendi, has rather miraculously managed to make it six games without getting a card, but he’s been walking a tightrope in recent times, often making multiple fouls and getting away with it.
Cucurella’s luck cannot last forever, and as he’ll be up against Bournemouth’s tricky Antoine Semenyo on Tuesday, at +290, he looks a little too generously priced to get on the wrong side of the referee, who is dishing out a healthy average of 4.18 cards in the EPL this season.
Brentford vs Tottenham: Mohamed Kudus to Assist
I’m going to round things off with something at a bigger price. Should Tottenham’s Mohamed Kudus, who has recorded five assists so far this term, be as big as +600 to register an assist against a Brentford team that is far from secure at the back? Absolutely not. There’s value on offer here.
Last time out, Kudus looked sharp in the final third, very nearly registering his sixth assist of the campaign. But for Richarlison being marginally offside, the Ghanaian would’ve done just that.
Per 90 minutes in the EPL this season, Kudus averages 0.32 assists per 90 minutes, which let’s face it, makes odds of +600 (14.3% implied probability) look quite generous indeed. In other words, the Spurs winger is assisting more frequently than his odds suggest.
Ranking as Spurs’ best player in terms of key passes (= passes leading directly to a shot) and crosses into the penalty area, I’m betting on the man who is currently the third most prolific goal provider in the EPL to set up one of his colleagues on Thursday.
