AFCON 2025: Will We See Any Quarter Final Upsets?

by Bradley Gibbs

image AFCON 2025: Will We See Any Quarter Final Upsets?
The action at the African Cup of Nations is now starting to get very serious indeed. Only eight teams remain. On Friday, the quarter-finals get underway. Will we see any upsets or will the favorites get the job done?

Eight teams left in the running  

As of yet, we haven’t really seen any shocks at the African Cup of Nations. At the very least, none of the big boys fell at the earliest of hurdles. The Round of 16 shaped up much as everyone would’ve expected, with a couple of surprises in the form of Sudan and Mozambique, who qualified despite being largely unfancied.

Now at the quarter-final stage, it’s all about the big dogs. Let’s be honest, everyone was expecting the top teams to make it this far, and they haven’t disappointed. 

As we can see from the above, there’s never just one way to go about your business at a big tournament. While the likes of Senegal delivered a string of explosive performances to secure a last-eight place, the men from Mali took a very different approach, keeping it tight, progressing to the quarters without securing a single win, tying four out of four. Which approach will prevail over the next week or so?

Is there an upset on the cards? 

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So far, for the big nations, everything has gone to plan, but we’ve now reached the stage where the slightest of slips could prove fatal. 

The nation with the most pressure to shoulder is Morocco, as the current outright betting from our top sportsbooks suggests:

  • Morocco +190
  • Senegal +350
  • Nigeria +500
  • Algeria +800
  • Egypt +850
  • Ivory Coast +850 
  • Cameroon +2000
  • Mali +2800

As we can see, the two nations most fancied to progress to the semi-finals are Morocco and Senegal, and to be honest, it would definitely be an upset if either of that pair failed to make it through. Up against big outsiders Mali, the Lions of Teranga should progress, while it’s impossible not to fancy the Atlas Lions, who after four solid displays on home soil have shortened in price to go all the way, to get the better of Cameroon. 

Interestingly, as third and fourth favorites to go all the way, the Nigerians, who have some top English Premier League talent in their ranks, and Algerians are up against each other. This means that a minor upset is guaranteed, as one of the first four in the outright betting ahead of the quarters will not feature in the semis. 

Egypt and Ivory Coast, who are locked together in the futures betting ahead of the quarters will meet, and it won’t be any sort of shock if either team progresses, which means that there really are only two possible shocks. Are the Moroccans going to slip up on home soil? I doubt it. Will a super Senegal team lose out to a Mali side that has failed to win four out of four since touching down in North Africa? Surely not.