2026 World Cup: Do FIFA Rankings Matter?
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
What are FIFA Rankings?
The FIFA rankings are the official method of ranking international football teams. According to their performances in all FIFA-recognised international matches, nations are awarded points. Based on the points awarded, international teams then move up and down the rankings, with the highest performing teams ranking at the top and the lowest performing teams at the bottom.
To win the FIFA World Cup, you might think that you'd need to be the highest-ranked team according to FIFA, but maybe that’s not the case. Let’s see what recent history says about this below.
Where did previous World Cup winners rank?
The table below shows how each World Cup winner since the turn of the century ranked ahead of the tournament:
| Year | Winner | FIFA Rank (before tournament) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Argentina | 3 |
| 2018 | France | 7 |
| 2014 | Germany | 2 |
| 2010 | Spain | 2 |
| 2006 | Italy | 13 |
| 2002 | Brazil | 1 |
As we can see, World Cup winners usually rank highly according to FIFA before the tournament begins, with three of the last four winners ranking third or better. Four of the six World Cup winners this century were ranked in the top three according to FIFA at the time of their victory.
only one of the last six World Cup winning nations was classed as the world’s best according to FIFA
However, perhaps somewhat strangely, only one of the last six World Cup winning nations was classed as the world’s best according to FIFA, so don’t be put off if the team you fancy in 2026 is not the highest-ranked team on the planet.
Where did previous semi-finalists rank?
Tournament success is all relative. Many teams have had successful tournaments without ever lifting the trophy, so we’ve also looked at how previous semi-finalists at the FIFA World Cup ranked just before embarking on a pleasing run.
| Year | Semi-finalists | FIFA Rank (before tournament) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Argentina, France, Croatia, Morocco | 3, 4, 12, 22 |
| 2018 | France, Croatia, Belgium, England | 2, 20, 1, 12 |
| 2014 | Germany, Argentina, Netherlands, Brazil | 2, 5, 15, 3 |
| 2010 | Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay | 2, 4, 6, 16 |
| 2006 | Italy, France, Germany, Portugal | 13, 8, 19, 7 |
| 2002 | Brazil, Germany, Turkey, South Korea | 1, 11, 22, 40 |
What the table above shows is that the semi-finals of the FIFA World Cup typically feature at least one team that ranks very highly, while it also shows that teams below the upper echelons can thrive.
Interestingly, at least one team ranked outside of the top ten has made the semi-finals in every World Cup this century. In four of those six World Cups, at least two of the semi-finalists began the tournament below the top ten in the rankings.
Recent history also tells us that the highest-ranked team in the world at the start of the tournament often fails to shoulder expectations, with the number-one ranked team reaching the semis in only two of the last four World Cups.
Summary - Do FIFA rankings matter
Now for the important part. Do FIFA rankings matter? Yes, but only up to a point. As we can see from the above, the World Cup winner is often one of the highest ranked teams according to FIFA, so from a trophy-lifting point of view, we can typically dismiss all of the lower-ranked teams.
However, as history shows us, lower-ranked teams can go deep into the tournament, so if you fancy one of the lower-ranked teams to go on a run in 2026, don’t be put off. They almost certainly won’t lift the trophy, but they may get as far as the semis, just as many lower-ranked teams have done before.
