2025 Open Championship Best Bets and Outrights
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Royal Portrush presents a tough test
The Open Championship is unlike the other three majors in that it is played outside of the US in Britain. It’s also different from the other three, as it’s the only one of the four majors to be played exclusively on links golf courses. Links golf is very much its own type of golf, and it’s fair to say that it’s not for everyone. Some superbly talented golfers have struggled to deliver anywhere near their best form on links courses over the years, so being a top player is not enough. You need to be a player that can handle the rather niche task presented by a links test such as the one players will find at Royal Portrush this week.
A coastal course, Royal Portrush is all about navigating windy conditions. A combination of accuracy and tactical golf will be rewarded, with wild play being severely punished. Those attempting to be too aggressive off the tee will quickly see their score rocket, that’s for sure.
In 2019, when the Open was last hosted at Royal Portrush, of the 49 courses to feature on the PGA Tour circuit, the Northern Irish gem ranked as the fourth most difficult. In other words, players need to have their game bang on point to thrive. You can’t be wild and you have to use a smart approach to get into as many scoring positions as possible. This is not a course where those in regular need of a recovery shot can go overly low from a scoring point of view.
To win at Royal Portrush, hitting lots of greens in regulation is paramount, and that’s exactly what Shane Lowry did on his way to victory back in 2019. The Irishman ranked as the number one player in the field for greens in regulation that week. The top three players in the field for greens in regulation finished inside the top four also, which is something to keep in mind when looking for a bet ahead of the 2025 renewal.
Open Championship betting market
As you would expect, Scottie Scheffler, who remains the world number one, is strongly fancied to perform well in Northern Ireland this week, as is Rory McIlroy, and it is that pair that once again dominates the top of the market.
Ahead of the 2025 renewal of the Open Championship, here’s what the outright betting from our top sportsbooks looks like:
Scottie Scheffler +450
Rory McIlroy +700
Jon Rahm +1200
Bryson DeChambeau +2000
Xander Schauffele +2500
Tommy Fleetwood +2600
Ludvig Aberg +2800
Viktor Hovland +3000
Collin Morikawa +3300
Tyrell Hatton +3300
Shan Lowry +3500
Robert MacIntyre +4000
All other players +5000 or bigger
What we really want to know is are there a few players worth betting on to do well this week? The answer is yes. In fact, there are a couple of really eye-catching betting opportunities as I see it, but before we get into those don’t forget that you can get all of our recommended bets, across a variety of sports, on our dedicated picks page.
Rory McIlroy to win: +700 with FanDuel
I know, I know, how boring, but I really do think that the early market doesn’t have this quite right. For my money, it wouldn’t be wrong if McIlroy was the slight favourite ahead of the action this week, and I really do think that Scottie Scheffler’s short price has allowed the Northern Irishman to be available at slightly generous odds.
For starters, McIlroy has been shorter in the betting ahead of majors that he’s arguably less suited to than an Open Championship at Royal Portrush, where he previously held the course record as a 17-year-old back in 2006. In case that wasn’t clear, odds of +700 are too big and are absolutely worth taking.
I think it’s also worth mentioning that McIlroy, who has cited a lack of motivation at times, wants to win this week. He’s back in Northern Ireland, playing at a venue that he loves, a course that he knows like the back of his hand. This cannot be overlooked.
After bombing out at the RBC Canadian Open back in June, when motivation following the completion of a career grand slam possibly wasn’t that high, McIlroy has managed to pump himself up again, posting efforts of T19, T6 and T2. Back in Britain last week, he delivered that joint-second at the Scottish Open, reminding everyone that if he’s on it, he’s one of the very best links golfers out there.
After his performance in Scotland last week, the 36-year-old commented on how happy he was with how he controlled his shots, and given the importance of controlled play this week, such comments must be seen in a very positive light. Oh, and we’re also
All things considered, the five-time major winner and one-time Open Championship winner simply ticks too many boxes for odds of +700 not to be considered on the large side. If you’re looking for value at the head of the market, look no further than Rory.
Bet on the Open Championship with FanDuel
Tommy Fleetwood to win & top 10 finish: +2600 & +220 with FanDuel
Of course, after I recommended Fleetwood as a strong bet at the US Open and he struggled, he went and played out of his skin at the very next event, but undeterred by that slightly frustrating occurrence, I’m sticking with the Englishman in the betting this week.
Fleetwood didn’t deliver one of his best efforts in Scotland last week, but he showed moments of promise, finishing T34. An improvement on that effort should not be ruled out, especially as he has a very recent second on his CV.
When the Open Championship was last played at Portrush, the man currently ranked 13th in the world finished second, while he’s not averse to raising his game at the majors in general, finishing inside the top five in four majors, including the Open, since 2022. Since 2019, Fleetwood has delivered three top-ten finishes at the Open Championship.
Only McIlroy and Scheffler have performed better on the PGA Tour when it comes to scoring average this season, while Fleetwood is also in the top 10 for strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: total. Given the odds, he’s not someone to shy away from in my opinion.
Sepp Straka to win & 10 finish: +5000 & +340 with FanDuel
Like Fleetwood, I put Straka up to thrive at the US Open a while back. Spoiler alert, he didn’t, but I cannot ignore how suited he looks to the task at hand this week.
The 32-year-old is accurate, there’s no doubting that. Only two players currently rank above him on the PGA Tour for strokes gained: total, while he’s also the fourth best PGA Tour player in terms of strokes gained: approach. What’s more, he ranks fourth for greens in regulation and first for birdie average.
When it comes to the Open Championship, recent form is critical. Sepp Straka brings recent form to the table, finishing T7 at the Scottish Open last week, while the world number eight also has a win and a third in the bag since May.
You could say that Straka has struggled to be consistently at his best in majors, and you wouldn’t be wrong, but he’s not entirely without hugely positive form at the Open, finishing second back in 2023. Consider this in conjunction with everything else and he becomes worth betting on to perform well at the currently available odds.
Nicolai Hojgaard top 20 finish: +340 with FanDuel
Staying on the European player theme, Nicolai Hojgaard could very easily do well at Royal Portrush following what was a superb effort at the Scottish Open last week, where the Dane finished in a tie for fourth.
Far from a poor links player, Hojgaard doesn’t boast much Open Championship form, but his ability to hit greens in regulation shouldn’t hinder his progress. The three-time European Tour winner currently ranks as the sixth best player on the PGA Tour (2025) for greens in regulation, while he’s in the top 20 for strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: total too.
With the 24-year-old in decent form, I’m happy to bet him to get himself in the top 20 at odds of +340.
