2025 MLB: Which Fringe Contenders Should Sell at the Trade Deadline?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
The trade deadline isn’t until July 31, but that didn’t stop the San Francisco Giants swinging one of the most significant trades in recent history when they acquired Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox.
Other front offices may wait a few weeks to decide whether to buy, sell, or stand pat. There’s a lot of baseball to be played between now and the deadline, giving teams the chance to slide in the standings to play their way into legitimate contention.
Even at this stage, though, there are a few teams who should be committing towards selling. It goes without saying that the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, and others are definite sellers, but there are a few fringy contenders that should be heading in that direction, whether due to overwhelming roster flaws, injuries, or unsustainable performance to date.
Arizona Diamondbacks
With Corbin Burnes out for the year, it would be reckless of the Arizona Diamondbacks to buy at the trade deadline. In a stacked division, there’s no way any reasonable MLB picks can back the D-backs to make the postseason.
If Arizona does sell, one of the players included in our surprise All-Star picks would attract the most interest.
Eugenio Suárez has the third-most home runs in the National League and has a string of career-highs in traditional and underlying metrics. Sporting a .958 OPS in June, Suárez is trending in the right direction after a relatively quiet May. Josh Naylor, Jalen Beeks, and Shelby Miller could also garner interest.
The Diamondbacks have an above-average offense. Their bullpen has the third-worst ERA over the last month, and in Burnes’ absence, the rotation is severely flawed with Merrill Kelly the only starter with an ERA+ above 100.
While only three games off the final wild-card spot, Arizona is 4.5 games behind the Giants, 7.5 behind the Philadelphia Phillies, and seems unlikely to keep pace with the San Diego Padres. Another three teams – all from the NL Central – are between the D-backs and the last wild-card berth.
Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals have an 89 wRC+ over the last month and sit 24th in xwOBA for the year. This offense is desperately short on firepower. While their pitching staff is sixth in xwOBA, the rotation looks relatively flimsy with Seth Lugo’s regression, even with Kris Bubic’s breakout.
Jac Caglianone’s promotion – one of the highest-ceiling hitting prospects in baseball – brings some upside to an offense that has been overly dependent on Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, but there are still too many holes to fill (29th in wins above average at second base and 30th in the same metric from their outfielders).
Michael Wacha and Mark Canha are veterans that could be flipped at the deadline. Kansas City should be looking to acquire minor-league hitters who have previously been overlooked, similar to how the Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers picked up Mike Yastrzemski and Max Muncy, respectively.
Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians are only half a game off the last wild-card spot and sit one game above .500. It isn’t really in the organization’s DNA to sell, and they are firmly in contention.
Cleveland, however, has a -24 run differential and is in the bottom five in offense since June 19. They have fallen from 25-17 to 37-35.
It won’t be a teardown, but the Guards could flip Carlos Santana and Jakob Junis for players that could help them in 2026 and 2027. While this doesn’t seem a likely outcome, it could prove beneficial for Cleveland in the medium-term. They look like one of the weaker wild-card contenders in the American League.
St. Louis Cardinals
Having lost seven of their last nine games, the St. Louis Cardinals need to make a move. They could talk themselves into buying with their current wild-card standing, but it might be shrewder to look to the future and move on from some of their veterans.
Perhaps that means the Nolan Arenado trade saga is revitalized. If there’s a desire to go into a deep rebuild, Lars Nootbar and Sonny Gray become trade candidates that could attract a significant return.
A quicker retool would see Ryan Helsley, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz on the market. Matz could be a man in demand with how he’s pitched this year, while Mikolas and Helsley are proven performers.
