International - CONCACAF Gold Cup
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by Tyler Doty in CONCACAF Gold Cup Picks
This Friday, the Gold Cup brings us a high-stakes showdown between two national teams that reached the semifinals after grinding out hard-fought matches, both decided by penalty shootouts. It’s the United States vs. Guatemala in what promises to be a tense and competitive semifinal.
The match is set for 5:00 p.m. Central Time at Energizer Park. On paper, the U.S. has the upper hand, having lost only once in their last five meetings with Guatemala.
The Stars and Stripes edged out Costa Rica in a shootout after a 2-2 draw in regulation. On the other side, Luis Fernando Tena’s squad knocked out a favored Canadian side, thanks to a 69th-minute equalizer from Rubio Rubin that sent the game to penalties—where Guatemala came out on top.
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USA vs Guatemala Form
USA and Guatemala Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 29, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 22, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 19, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 15, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 10, 2025 - International Friendlies
Jun 7, 2025 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 29, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 22, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 15, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 10, 2025 - International Friendlies
Jun 7, 2025 - International Friendlies
Mar 20, 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 19, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Mar 23, 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
Nov 14, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
Oct 15, 2024 - International Friendlies
Jun 27, 2024 - Copa America
Nov 20, 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 29, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 24, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 20, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 16, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 10, 2025 - World Cup
Jun 6, 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 20, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 6, 2025 - World Cup
Mar 25, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Mar 16, 2025 - International Friendlies
Sep 9, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
Sep 5, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 29, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 24, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 16, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
Jun 10, 2025 - World Cup
May 31, 2025 - International Friendlies
Mar 21, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
USA - Guatemala: Form Analysis
The USMNT had a perfect run in the group stage, topping Group D with three straight wins and a full nine points. However, things didn’t come as easily in the quarterfinals, where they struggled to put away Costa Rica and only advanced after a tense penalty shootout. With that in mind, hosting Guatemala won’t be a walk in the park.
In their last five meetings with Guatemala, the U.S. has come out on top four times, with just one loss.
As for Guatemala, the team led by Mexican coach Luis Fernando Tena finished second in Group C with two wins and one loss. But their biggest moment came in the quarterfinals, when they pulled off a dramatic upset against Canada, drawing 1-1 in regulation and sealing their spot in the semis through penalties. Still, facing the U.S. is no easy task, especially when you look at the head-to-head history.
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Guatemala v USA last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
USA & Guatemala Squad Analysis
In terms of the squad, one of the most decisive players for the United States is Maximilian Arfsten, who has already scored one goal and assisted three times in this Gold Cup. Malik Tillman has also been fundamental in the offensive aspect, with three goals and one assist. Not to mention Jack McGlynn, who also contributed to his team with an assist.
Rubio Rubin was the player who gave Guatemala the equalizer in the quarterfinals and already has two goals and an assist.
For Guatemala, Luis Fernando Tena has been fundamental, as he has 41% of wins and 28% of draws. However, their strength lies in their defense, as their goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen has been able to position himself and has a statistic of 1 goal conceded per game in this Gold Cup, in addition to 77% of saves per game.
Most goals and assists
USA
Guatemala
M. Tillman
(3 Goals)
R. Rubin
(2 Goals)
M. Arfsten
(3 Assists)
D. Lom
(1 Assists)
,
R. Rubin
(1 Assists)
,
R. Munoz
(1 Assists)
,
O. Santis
(1 Assists)
USA - Guatemala Key Points
- Four of the last five meetings between the two teams have resulted in scores of over 2.5 goals.
- The United States has scored 17 goals in the last five times it has played Guatemala.
- The USMNT have scored 10 goals in their last four meetings.
- Guatemala have five goals in their last three away games.
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Our USA vs Guatemala Prediction
The United States came into the match against Costa Rica as the favorite, but on the field, things proved more complicated. While they did manage to come out on top and punch their ticket to the semifinals, the performance left some questions hanging over the hosts. Given that and the strong form shown by Luis Fernando Tena’s squad, there’s no clear favorite heading into this clash. That said, the stats still give the U.S. a slight edge at home.
Looking at each team’s recent goal-scoring history over their last five matches, we could be in for a high-scoring affair.
Our prediction for USA vs. Guatemala: Over 2.5 goals.
USA vs Guatemala - Other Interesting Picks
US to lead at half.
US to qualify for next round.
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