Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks - NHL
USA - NHL
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by Travis Pulver | in NHL Picks
The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9, 11-12-3 Away) will get the second half of the season, post-Winter Olympics break, underway Wednesday, February 25, with a trip down to Florida to play the Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4, 18-9-0 Home). Fans can follow the action on HBO Max, TNT, or truTV once the puck drops at 7:30 p.m. EST.
Tampa Bay has been one of the better teams in the NHL this season. Going into the break for the Winter Olympics, the Lightning won five in a row and had gone 8-1-1 in their last ten. Their record currently stands at 37-14-4, giving them 78 points, tied for second-best in the NHL with Carolina and Minnesota. As for Toronto, the Maple Leafs have had a tougher time this season. They went into the break on a high, having won their last three games, but they had dropped eight of nine prior to that (two in overtime). The 5-2 win over Edmonton in their final game before the break improved their record to 27-21-9. They will have their work cut out for them when play resumes if they’re to make the playoffs. Toronto is currently six-points back of the Boston Bruins for the final wild card slot.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
106 | 2632 | 40 | 26 | +59 |
|
28
|
78 | 2377 | 23 | 36 | -46 |
Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Feb 5, 2026 - NHL
Feb 3, 2026 - NHL
Feb 1, 2026 - NHL
Jan 29, 2026 - NHL
Jan 26, 2026 - NHL
Jan 24, 2026 - NHL
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Feb 5, 2026 - NHL
Feb 3, 2026 - NHL
Feb 1, 2026 - NHL
Jan 29, 2026 - NHL
Jan 26, 2026 - NHL
Jan 20, 2026 - NHL
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Jan 24, 2026 - NHL
Jan 23, 2026 - NHL
Jan 18, 2026 - NHL
Jan 16, 2026 - NHL
Jan 13, 2026 - NHL
Jan 12, 2026 - NHL
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Feb 3, 2026 - NHL
Feb 2, 2026 - NHL
Jan 31, 2026 - NHL
Jan 29, 2026 - NHL
Jan 27, 2026 - NHL
Jan 25, 2026 - NHL
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Jan 27, 2026 - NHL
Jan 25, 2026 - NHL
Jan 23, 2026 - NHL
Jan 21, 2026 - NHL
Jan 19, 2026 - NHL
Jan 10, 2026 - NHL
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Feb 3, 2026 - NHL
Feb 2, 2026 - NHL
Jan 31, 2026 - NHL
Jan 29, 2026 - NHL
Jan 17, 2026 - NHL
Jan 15, 2026 - NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning against Toronto Maple Leafs : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
83 %
Dec 8, 2025 - NHL
Apr 9, 2025 - NHL
Jan 20, 2025 - NHL
Nov 30, 2024 - NHL
Oct 21, 2024 - NHL
Apr 17, 2024 - NHL
Players list
A. Vasilevskiy
J. Johansson
V. Hedman
D. Raddysh
J. Moser
E. Lilleberg
C. D'Astous
R. McDonagh
E. Cernak
B. Hagel
J. Guentzel
S. Sabourin
P. Holmberg
D. James
G. Goncalves
B. Point
O. Bjorkstrand
N. Kucherov
Z. Girgensons
Y. Gourde
J. Woll
A. Stolarz
T. Stecher
S. Benoit
O. Ekman-Larsson
B. Carlo
J. McCabe
M. Rielly
N. Roy
S. Lorentz
M. Knies
M. Maccelli
N. Robertson
W. Nylander
S. Laughton
C. Jarnkrok
J. Tavares
M. Domi
A. Matthews
B. McMann
Most goals and assists
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
J. Tavares
(31 Goals)
W. Nylander
(49 Assists)
Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs Key Points
- Toronto leads the all-time series vs. Tampa Bay, 74-51-2-2.
- Toronto has won the last five games vs. Tampa Bay, including a 2-0 shutout in December.
- Tampa Bay is 10-17 ATS at home; Toronto is 12-14 ATS on the road.
- The OVER is 13-13-1 for Tampa Bay at home and 18-13 for Toronto on the road.
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Our Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction
I’m inclined to roll with Tampa Bay for this one as the Lightning have been playing well at home this season and much more consistently than the Maple Leafs. Toronto showed some promise before the break, but considering how things had been going for them, I’ll need to see them play before I can back them.
Our Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Pick: Lightning -1.5
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