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by Erik Gibbs in MLB Picks
The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays renew their long‑standing rivalry in Game 3 of the American League Division Series. During the regular season, both clubs finished with identical 94‑68 records, but Toronto captured the AL East title via the head‑to‑head tiebreaker. The Blue Jays rode a well‑rounded roster to the division crown, ranking near the top of the league in home runs and maintaining a plus‑130 run differential.
They carried that offensive momentum into October, hammering the Yankees 13‑7 in Game 2 to take a commanding 2‑0 series lead. However, the Yankees aren't ready to give up and fought back in Game 3 to win 9-6. Still, Toronto's bats have been especially potent at home, where they slugged more than one homer per game and consistently pressured opposing pitchers.
The Yankees, by contrast, endured an uneven season; while their 94‑68 mark underscores their talent, they spent much of the year streaking, alternating winning runs with slumps. They navigated the wild‑card round against Boston but have been unable to contain Toronto's lineup thus far, surrendering a combined 18 runs in the first two games. Despite strong pitching numbers overall (the Yankees' staff finished third in the AL in ERA), they now face the daunting task of reversing a one‑game deficit.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Form
Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees Latest Matches

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5/6 (83%)
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3/6 (50%)
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Toronto Blue Jays against New York Yankees : Head to Head (H2H)
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Toronto Blue Jays - New York Yankees Key Points
- The Blue Jays are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
- The Yankees are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
- The Over is 4-1 in the Blue Jays' last 5 games
- The Over is 3-2 in the Yankees' last 5 games
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Our Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction
Toronto's offense is anchored by first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who topped 40 homers and surpassed 100 RBIs for the second consecutive season. Shortstop Bo Bichette contributes high batting averages and gap power, while outfielder Daulton Varsho brings speed and defense. Rookie right‑hander Trey Yesavage turned heads with an 11‑strikeout, one‑hit effort in Game 2, etching his name into franchise lore. Ace Kevin Gausman (sub‑3.00 ERA, 200‑plus strikeouts) and mid‑rotation arm José Berríos give Toronto enviable depth.
The Yankees boast star power of their own: outfielder Aaron Judge clubbed more than 50 home runs and reached base at a .400 clip, while new acquisition Juan Soto added left‑handed power and patience. Anthony Volpe solidified the shortstop position with solid defense and double‑digit homers, and first baseman Anthony Rizzo returned to form after an injury‑marred 2024. Gerrit Cole, the reigning Cy Young winner, leads the pitching staff, but he struggled in the ALDS opener and bullpen stalwarts like Clay Holmes and Michael King have been taxed.
For New York to mount a comeback, their starters must suppress Toronto's power hitters and their own lineup needs timely hitting rather than relying solely on the long ball. Given the Blue Jays' current offensive surge and home‑field advantage, they are favored to close out the series, yet the Yankees' experience and star talent mean a reversal cannot be entirely ruled out. Our prediction for the New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Over 8.5 runs.
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