Texas vs Tennessee Prediction & Picks - NCAA Men
USA - NCAA Men
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by Dan Angell | in Basketball Picks
The Tennessee Volunteers (14-1 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) head to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS), marking the fourth meeting between the teams in the past four years. That wouldn’t be very notable between conference opponents, except for the fact that Texas just joined the SEC this season. The teams matched up in the regular season in 2022 and 2023, and Tennessee ended Texas’ season in the second round of last year’s NCAA tournament.
The three previous meetings have all been tight affairs, with the Volunteers winning by four a year ago. Texas won the only meeting in Austin, though, emerging with a one-point victory in a 52-51 rock fight. Texas isn’t the same defense-heavy team it was back then, as Rodney Terry is more willing to push the tempo than Chris Beard was. That’s worked to Texas’ detriment so far in SEC play, as the Longhorns are 0-2 in league play after defeats to Texas A&M and Auburn.
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Texas vs Tennessee Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15
|
0.806 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 1 |
|
159
|
0.548 | 31 | 17 | 14 |
Texas - Tennessee Key Points
- The under is 6-1 in the Volunteers’ past seven games.
- Tennessee is 1-3 ATS in its past four games.
- The over is 4-2 in the Longhorns’ past six games.
- Texas has scored at least 77 points in five of its past six wins.
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Our Texas vs Tennessee Prediction
The Volunteers have been a solid defensive squad under Rick Barnes, and that’s gone to more of an extreme this season. Tennessee leads the nation in 3-point defense, and the Longhorns’ best part of their offensive attack is their 3-point percentage. Texas really doesn’t have a great way to attack the Tennessee defense, as the Volunteers do everything well and the Longhorns don’t really have a plan B.
While the game style favors Tennessee, the better play seems to be to go with the under. The Volunteers’ style does not lend itself to a lot of points scored, as they aren’t good shooters from anywhere but 10 to 15 feet. Those kinds of possessions take time off the clock and result in two points at a time, which is why Tennessee plays so many unders. With the style of game likely to sit at the Vols’ pace, this seems likely to be another low-scoring game. Our prediction for Tennessee vs. Texas is Under 137.5.
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