Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks - WNBA
USA - WNBA
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by Erik Gibbs | in WNBA Picks
Host Phoenix plays host to Las Vegas in a Western matchup of genuine playoff relevance. Phoenix enters at 19–12 but has been inconsistent, 4–6 in its last ten. Las Vegas is 19–14 and has found its mojo back after winning three straight on the road. The season split stands at 1–1, and both contests were close, which reinforces the notion that margins in Phoenix are thin and end-of-game performance will be what makes it.
Phoenix's personality is founded on defense and discipline. The Mercury have held relatively few opponents to less than 79 points per game and feel at ease pulling teams into half-court basketball. Alyssa Thomas powers much of the team's success as a do-everything center, averaging in excess of sixteen points, eight boards, and six assists.
She's supported in and out of the post by Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper, giving Phoenix a range of options to attack: post touches off Sabally, slashing and spot-ups off Copper, and Thomas commanding from the elbows. When the ball flows side-to-side and Phoenix takes the defensive glass, they dictate tempo and shot selection.
Las Vegas offers star power and championship bona fides. A'ja Wilson continues to be the main engine, a two-way dynamo checking in above twenty-two points and close to ten boards on average. Supporting her, Jackie Young provides perimeter pop and complementary playmaking, and Chelsea Gray provides offense steadying, set-leadership, and mismatch punishment.
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Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
0.682 | 44 | 30 | 14 | 10 |
|
4
|
0.614 | 44 | 27 | 17 |
Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Aug 10, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 7, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 5, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 3, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 1, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 30, 2025 - WNBA
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 10, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 7, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 5, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 23, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 9, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 7, 2025 - WNBA
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Aug 3, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 1, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 30, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 27, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 25, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 16, 2025 - WNBA
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Aug 13, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 10, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 8, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 6, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 3, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 2, 2025 - WNBA
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Aug 13, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 10, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 8, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 3, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 2, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 22, 2025 - WNBA
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 6, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 29, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 27, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 25, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 24, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 16, 2025 - WNBA
Phoenix Mercury against Las Vegas Aces : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Jun 29, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 15, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 1, 2024 - WNBA
Jun 13, 2024 - WNBA
May 21, 2024 - WNBA
May 14, 2024 - WNBA
Players list
M. Akoa-Makani
S. Sabally
K. Copper
A. Thomas
C. Gray
J. Young
N. Smith
K. Bell
Substitutes
K. Williams
D. Bonner
L. Held
S. Whitcomb
K. Laksa
K. Westbeld
D. Evans
A. Nye
J. Loyd
Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces Key Points
- The Aces are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
- The Mercury are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games
- The Over is 3-2 in the Aces' last 5 games
- The Over is 1-4 in the Mercury's last 5 games
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Our Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction
The Aces' offense can snowball when guards nail the early threes, but defensively they have been porous at points, giving up eighty-plus to faster backcourts. Avoiding getting the Mercury to the foul line and restraining second-chance opportunities will be the cornerstone of their strategy.
The key matchup is Wilson against Thomas: one of the league's best scorers against one of its best multi-tool facilitators and rebounders. If Phoenix can instill a half-court, pounding game—leaving Wilson at the free-throw line as little as possible and reducing driving lanes—its defense and home crowd may tip the scales. If Las Vegas can push tempo, create early cross-matches, and get Young in transition in the secondary spot, the Aces' shot quality skyrockets.
Special teams play, too. Phoenix needs to win the glass and restrict live-ball turnovers that generate Las Vegas runs. The Aces should defend without fouling and prevent Thomas from getting to her favorite elbow touches, where she generates high-value looks. Bench minutes may tip the scales if one coach achieves a hot hand.
Phoenix's defense reputation and home edge make the Mercury a live option in a one- or two-possession game. Despite that, the Aces' championship experience and fourth quarter shot-making provide a significant counterweight, creating another cliffhanger decided in the final minute. Our prediction for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: Over 168.5 points.
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