Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Prediction & Picks - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Carlos Zabala | in Champions League Picks
In a first leg shrouded in controversy, Real Madrid won 1-0 in Lisbon, taking the advantage back to the Santiago Bernabéu, where they hope to finish the job, eliminate Benfica, and advance to the round of 16. In the first leg, Vinicius Jr. scored a spectacular goal; this was acknowledged by Mourinho, former Real Madrid manager and current manager of Benfica, but he criticized the Brazilian for taunting the crowd during the celebration instead of running towards his teammates. Apparently, the Argentine Gianluca Prestiano uttered a racist insult. Vinicius reported him to the referee; both later gave different versions of what happened, but the Argentine forward has been suspended for the return leg in Madrid.
History shows that Real Madrid's chances of progressing in this tie are very high; they have to be, since the most successful club in Champions League history has won 22 of the last 23 UCL ties in which they won the first leg.
Benfica had beaten Real Madrid 4-2 in the final group stage match, with an epic goal from their goalkeeper; they will now be looking for another epic comeback, but they will have to overcome the fact that they have been eliminated in 7 of their last 8 Champions League knockout ties after losing the first leg. Meanwhile, Mourinho has not won any of his last 9 knockout matches with different clubs.
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Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Form
Real Madrid and Benfica Lisbon Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 21, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League
Feb 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 8, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 1, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 1, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 20, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 17, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 4, 2026 - LaLiga
Dec 20, 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 21, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League
Feb 8, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 24, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 14, 2026 - Copa del Rey
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 21, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League
Feb 13, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 8, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 1, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 21, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League
Feb 8, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 25, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 7, 2026 - Portugal League Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Feb 13, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 1, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 21, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 17, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 14, 2026 - Taca de Portugal
Dec 28, 2025 - Liga Portugal
Real Madrid against Benfica Lisbon : Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
Real Madrid - Benfica Lisbon: Form Analysis
After Xabi Alonso's dismissal, Real Madrid fans were preparing for another lackluster season and were mostly pessimistic about Arbeloa, but the club has since improved.
Real Madrid was eliminated from the Copa del Rey by the modest Albacete, but in the league, from that point on, they cynically strung together consecutive victories, closing the gap to six points on Barcelona and taking the top spot before matchday 25.
Real Madrid faltered once they had mastered the league title and immediately relinquished the lead to Barcelona after losing 2-1 in Pamplona against Osasuna.
Meanwhile, Benfica have topped the Portuguese table under Mourinho; goals from Bah, Berrenechea, and Rafa Silva gave the Eagles a 3-0 victory against AFS; it was a complete domination. However, that doesn't inspire many to believe they can upset Real Madrid at the Bernabéu on Wednesday, especially since Los Blancos have now won six consecutive home matches.
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Real Madrid against Benfica Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
F. Gonzalez
A. Lunin
DefenderD. Carvajal
F. Mendy
F. Garcia
D. Alaba
Manuel Angel
C. Palacios
J. Cestero
T. Pitarch Pinar
F. Mastantuono
B. Diaz
D. Ferreira
S. Soares
DefenderA. Silva
Sidny Lopes Cabral
J. Neto
A. Bah
MidfielderG. Sudakov
E. Barrenechea
M. Silva
F. Ivanovic
A. Cabral
D. Lukebakio
Missing players
E. Militao
D. Huijsen
MidfielderD. Ceballos
ForwardK. Mbappe
Rodrygo
G. Prestianni
Real Madrid & Benfica Lisbon Squad Analysis
Vinícius Júnior followed up a brilliant individual run by Valverde and was there to tap it in, scoring against Osasuna and bringing his tally to five goals in his last four appearances. Among Real Madrid's injured players, Rodrygo and Bellingham remain on the list. Dean Huijsen missed the match against Osasuna and is still doubtful. Valverde and Güler are among the players who are almost certain to be available, while Mbappé is officially out for this match.
Real Madrid will be without Mbappé for this match.
On the Benfica side, they hope their striker Pavlidis can lead them in an epic comeback. The Greek has had a powerful season with 28 goals across all competitions. Mourinho is likely to make room for Richard Ríos to start in midfield.
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Benfica Lisbon
K. Mbappe
(15 Goals)
V. Pavlidis
(2 Goals)
, 
L. Barreiro
(2 Goals)
, 
A. Schjelderup
(2 Goals)
Vinicius Junior
(6 Assists)
G. Sudakov
(2 Assists)
,
V. Pavlidis
(2 Assists)
Real Madrid - Benfica Lisbon Key Points
- In 14 of Real Madrid's last 15 home Champions League matches, both teams have scored
- Real Madrid had 61% possession in the league match
- The first leg against Benfica saw six yellow cards shown both on and off the field
- Real Madrid completed 88% of their attempted passes in the first leg against Benfica
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Our Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Prediction
Mourinho will be unable to manage his team personally on Wednesday due to the two yellow cards he received in the first leg. Real Madrid returns to the Bernabéu, where they last played a furious match, convincingly defeating Real Sociedad with goals from García, Vinícius, Valverde, and another from the Brazilian.
The odds continue to favor Real Madrid, the most successful team in Champions League history; betting against Los Blancos at the Bernabéu in the Champions League seems riskier than ever; they should comfortably secure their place in the tie against Benfica.
Our prediction for Real Madrid vs Benfica is: Real Madrid -1.5.
Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon - Other Interesting Picks
Vinicius Junior to score or assist
Half-Time result: Real Madrid
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
